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*** Topic for the Week of July 29, 2024 ***
New Website: HelenHynsonVettori.com

As of August 1, 2024, this website will no longer be updated. A new website, helenhynsonvettori.com, is now the place to seek information about the black swan trilogy and the author Helen Hynson Vettori. There you will see all the details for Black Swan Impact that you enjoyed here on this site as well as news about the next two books in the series: Black Swan Shock and Black Swan Terror.  Moreover, you will find the continuation of the blog geared toward awareness of actual biothreats. Click on the link below to explore those and many new or returning elements.

*** Topic for the Week of July 22, 2024 ***
Surprising Disease Issue for the Olympics

Mosquitoes are the most dangerous animal in the world because they carry so many diseases, transmitting them when they extract blood from a host. Dengue fever is a virus that can be transmitted to humans via the Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes. Aedes aegypti is originally from Africa and Aedes albopictus is from Asia. Until recently, they lived in tropical and subtropical regions but increasingly these pests are finding homes in temperate climates like Noth America and Europe. That being the case, the 2024 Olympics in Paris could become a hotspot for a major Dengue outbreak.

 

The signs and symptoms of Dengue fever are fever, aches and pains (eye pain, typically behind the eyes, muscle, joint, or bone pain), nausea, vomiting, and a rash. Most people recover after about a week. However, subsequent infections can cause severe complications. On May 28, 2024, in an NBC Health article, Kaitlin Sullivan, Anne Thompson and Patrick Martin quoted Michael von Fricken, director of the One Health Center of Excellence at the University of Florida in Gainesville, “After you’ve had your first exposure, your risk of having dengue hemorrhagic fever or severe symptoms increases exponentially,” and they went on to write, “Dengue also becomes deadlier with each infection.*” Therefore, Dengue fever is a serious health concern. 

 

Unfortunately, for those planning and preparing for the Olympics, it is another threat that must be on their list. It became an item on the list because, as a CNN article reported, “In September 2023, several people came down with dengue fever in Paris, France. The presence of this mosquito-borne disease was notable for two reasons. It was the most northerly outbreak ever recorded, and none of the people had travelled recently. This demonstrated it is now possible for dengue to be transmitted locally in northern Europe.***” Not only is it apparent that the Ades mosquitoes are present in Paris, but travelers from the world over will come to the Olympics. Think back to last week’s post (Topic # 89) and recall that travelers can carry diseases.

 

You and I have no control over the plans and preparations that are being taken for the Olympics to be safe and eventful. However, we can safeguard our family and ourselves. The actions you can take are easy. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says that the best way to prevent exposure to Dengue fever is to avoid getting bitten in the first place. Some steps are using bug repellent and ensuring your yard is free from standing water. Enjoy the summer and the Olympics but do so prudently.

* https://www.cdc.gov/dengue/areas-with-risk/index.html#:~:text=Dengue%20is%20a%20common%20disease,illness%20in%20areas%20with%20risk

** https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/dengue-fever-climate-change-mosquitos-tropical-disease-rcna149366 

*** https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/14/health/dengue-paris-olympics/index.html
 

*** Topic for the week of July 15, 2024 ***
Tick, Tick, Tick Timebomb: Another Tickborne Ailment!

Ticks transmit more diseases than you might think such as Rocky Mountain spotted fever and tularemia. Topic # 69 discussed Lyme disease, which is the most transmitted tickborne ailment. However, a lesser-known illness, alpha-gal syndrome (AGS), transmitted by the lone star tick, has been quietly sneaking up since at least 2010, and on June 8, 2024, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a warning about this potentially severe illness. 

The CDC encourages medical professionals to consider alpha-gal syndrome when diagnosing patients, and not only treat it, but report it because “[a]lpha-gal syndrome is an important emerging public health problem, with potentially severe health impacts that can last a lifetime for some patients*”. That being the case, it is critical to avoid being bitten by the lone star tick (or any tick) and to watch for signs and symptoms of alpha-gal syndrome if you have been bitten by one. **

After being infected, AGS is a serious allergic condition some people experience when they consume beef, lamb, pork, organ meats, dairy products, or animal-based gelatin. Alpha-gal is a sugar found in lone star tick saliva. When it bites mammals, it transfers the sugar molecule to its host. In some people, this triggers a reaction from the body's immune system, causing mild to severe allergic reactions to red meat. Signs and symptoms include hives or itching, scaly skin, swelling of the lips, face, tongue, throat, or other body parts, wheezing or shortness of breath, drooling and/or not being able to swallow, and dizziness. 

To prevent getting bitten, use the following measures:

•    Avoid areas where ticks are known to inhabit.
•    Have your yard treated by a pest control company.
•    Use appropriate insect repellents.
•    Wear long sleeved tops, full-length pants, socks, and appropriate covered shoes or boots.
•    Inspect you and your pets after being outside.
•    Shower immediately after outdoor activities.

More steps to prevent being bitten by a tick may be found at https://www.cdc.gov/ticks/prevention/index.html. 

Take care of yourself and your family. Know how to prevent tick bites or identify signs and symptoms of tickborne illnesses, so you can seek medical care quickly. Ticks harbor many serious diseases. AGS is just one and it’s on the rise.

* https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2024/06/08/lone-star-tick-bites-meat-allergy-summer-warning/73909818007/ 

** https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2023/p0727-emerging-tick-bites.html
 

*** Topic for The Week of July 8, 2024 ***
Benefits of Codifying a World Pandemic Agreement

When COVID-19 held the populations of the world in its tightest grip, many world leaders began calling for all countries to join forces with a unified action plan that could be implemented. It was too late at that time, but could mitigate future threats from microorganisms, so that people would never again be so vulnerable as they were by SARS COV-2. Medical professionals like Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said, “[G]overnments must never again fail to cooperate in sharing vital information, medical equipment and medicines. And … the world’s poorest countries and communities cannot be left at the end of the queue again when it comes to access to lifesaving tools like vaccines.*” The premise being that by curbing widespread disease, we all benefit. Thus, more than 190 countries sent representatives to negotiate a world pandemic agreement in a forum hosted by the World Health Assembly.

 

The nation-members negotiated for over two years. Then, on June 3, 2024, Science.org reported, “The Pandemic Agreement contains a bevy of measures, including disease surveillance and strengthening health systems, to improve the world’s defense against global outbreaks of an infectious agent. But the key stumbling block is the so-called Pathogen Access and Benefit-Sharing system, which would compel countries to share samples of viruses, bacteria, or other pathogens and their genetic sequences, information needed to make vaccines, treatments, and diagnostics**.” However, at this juncture there’s hope that the impasses will be resolved.

 

If a worldwide pandemic agreement does become ratified, nations, their people, and their economies will be better prepared for emergences of highly virulent and infectious diseases. Fewer people will be as vulnerable to illness as they have been to date, making the entire population on Earth fare better. Think what could have been had China shared COVID data early in the outbreak. How many of the more than seven million lives lost could have been saved, and how many billions if not trillions of dollars would have remained active in the global economy?*** Public health is a unified effort that benefits the collective. It’s time to think globally for our common good. 

 

* https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2024/05/22/who-pandemic-agreement-covid-geneva/73721509007/

 

** https://www.science.org/content/article/negotiations-global-plan-fight-pandemics-end-without-deal#:~:text=The%20Pandemic%20Agreement%20contains%20a,outbreaks%20of%20an%20infectious%20agent.

 

*** https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2024/05/22/who-pandemic-agreement-covid-geneva/73721509007/

*** Topic for The Week of July 1, 2024 ***
A Shocking Warning from A Former CDC Director

On June 15, 2024, an article in The Hill posted this bold headline: Former CDC director predicts bird flu pandemic and quoted Robert Redfield, “I really do think it’s very likely that we will, at some time, it’s not a question of if, it’s more of a question of when we will have a bird flu pandemic.1” As you have read in my Substack articles and in Black Swan Impact, pandemics are cyclical. That fact kept me busy as an emergency manager who planned and prepared the federal government for such a crisis. There are many biothreats, so it is important to understand why Redfield raise the alarm over Avian influenza.

Perhaps the reasons are these:

  • Bird flu has been an ongoing panzootic. (See Topic # 71.)

  • The World Health Organization (WHO) identified the first human death from avian influenza on June 5, 2024, in Mexico.

  • On June 11, 2024, the WHO confirmed a case of H9N2 in India.

  • There is an ongoing, perhaps misunderstood outbreak of bird flu in the United States (US). (See Topic # 86.)

 

The people in Mexico and India contracted different strains than that of the outbreak in cattle in the US. The strain in Mexico was H5N2, the strain in India was H9N2, and the strain the US is H5N1. Nonetheless, H5N2 and H9N2 are types of bird flu. But there is one more concern that may have prompted Redfield to sound the alarm. Knowing that the avian virus must mutate to be an effective parasite that can harm humans, he reported that the necessary sequencing had been mapped out. “[I]n 2012, against my recommendation, the scientists that did these experiments actually published them[,] [s]o, the recipe for how to make bird flu highly [infectious] for humans is already out there.2” That translates into one more bullet point that likely caused Redfield to declare Avian influenza will become a human pandemic.

  • Any motivated bad actor has access to the information needed to weaponize H5N1.

 

Welcome to my former professional world. Natural and manmade biothreats abound. Just when the next pandemic might outbreak is anyone’s guess. In fact, we still are in one. However, it is possible to have concurrent pandemics. Pandemic fatigue may cause many to ignore actions that we can undertake now to prevent or mitigate future biothreat catastrophes. If we champion prudent emergency management and public health practices, particularly in unified efforts, we will be better off.

1

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4723753-former-cdc-director-predicts-bird-flu-pandemic/

2

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4723753-former-cdc-director-predicts-bird-flu-pandemic/

*** Topic for the Week of June 24, 2024 *** Lessons Learned from the COVID-19 Pandemic – Learned or Observed Only?

The National Foundation for Infectious Disease identified five lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic. They are:

  • Trust – restore faith people have in the government. 

  • Change – ensure the public can accept new information and the resulting actions. 

  • Scientific Literacy – make certain medical practitioners as well as the lay public can understand the purpose of and for medical actions. 

  • Vaccine Development – develop one in a timely manner and provide clear information about it. 

  • Flexibility – ensure every member of the public health community is able to identify and rapidly address emerging biothreats for the protection of everyone.1

 

The overarching element for successful implementation of the five lessons learned is communication coupled with education. Of course, funding cannot be overlooked, but what good is money if people can’t or won’t accept effective public health measures? Have we learned lessons, or have we identified issues? To be learned, all partners in public health (healthcare providers, governments, and citizens) must undertake and adopt actions and strategies for future biothreats. I have argued repeatedly over the years that not only did the government fall short, but individuals also degraded public health, and, unfortunately, it seems the pattern continues.

I am not alone in those opinions. On January 29, 2024, Dr. Amit Phull wrote an op-ed article stating, “The COVID-19 pandemic was an unprecedented test of our health care system's resilience, and as we move forward, I fear that instead of learning from our shortcomings, we are inadvertently solidifying a state of unpreparedness. … Moreover, the pandemic underscored the importance of a well-coordinated, cohesive national response. Our response was anything but unified.2” Jerome Adams, surgeon general under former President Trump said, "We failed — through two administrations — to develop and implement an effective surveillance strategy with COVID, and we are repeating the same mistakes," and Seth former CEO of Gavi, Berkley stated, "It's been shocking to watch the ineptitude of just doing the surveillance, being able to talk about it, tracking the infections, understanding where we are.3" Can we overcome these shortfalls? It is possible.

You may remember that Topic # 88 offered questions for subscribers to answer via polls. Many of you believe that your local, state, and/or federal government will not adequately help you when a crisis strikes, and they will not assist you and your community to recover to a state that is equal to or better than before the catastrophe occurred. That feedback should alert all of us. Emergency preparedness begins with us and extends throughout our community. We should do what we can individually and then support local, state, and federal emergency management planning and preparations for all disasters, including biothreats. You can make a difference for yourself, and together we can make a difference for us all.  

1

https://www.nfid.org/5-lessons-learned-from-the-covid-19-pandemic/

 

2

https://opmed.doximity.com/articles/the-lessons-we-haven-t-learned-from-covid

 

3

https://www.axios.com/2024/06/18/bird-flu-2024-us-response-criticismw.axios.com/2024/06/18/bird-flu-2024-us-response-criticism

*** Topic for the Week of June 17, 2024 ***
Infectious Diseases Are on The Rise in the US: Why and What Can Reverse That Trend?

Many believed scarlet fever was close to being eradicated in the mid twentieth century, yet not only has it lingered but recently cases have skyrocketed. Since 2020, TB has increased year over year after having a downward trend, and measle cases have risen seventeen-fold over the mean number of cases reported last year, which was already abnormally high. Let’s identify one major factor causing the issue of rising infectious diseases in the United States (US) and offer solutions to the issue.2

An infectious disease is, “an illness due to a pathogen or its toxic product, which arises through transmission from an infected person, an infected animal, or a contaminated inanimate object to a susceptible host.3” If you suffered from a case of COVID-19, then you caught it by someone ill with the infection expelling the viral particulates into the air and you breathed them in. COVID is an airborne disease. An illustration of fomite contamination, one where you have touched a contaminated object and then introduced that contamination to your mucus membranes (eyes, nose, mouth), is norovirus. Last week, we discussed milk as a potential source of foodborne illness.

Infectious diseases are rising in the US for many reasons, including overcrowding, vaccine refusal or deprivation, and climate factors. However, migration magnifies the problem, spreading disease faster, farther, and wider than throughout most of human history. Travelers may not know they are sick when boarding planes, infecting not only those at the new destinations, but the fellow travelers on those planes who then go onto additional destinations. Illegal migrants also unknowingly or knowingly enter the US seeking a better life and better healthcare for themselves and their families while exposing legal residents to diseases that should not have made their way there. Further, ill, unscreened migrants spread infectious diseases widely because they scatter throughout the US and illegal aliens hide from authorities, usually in overcrowded living conditions4.

One action that can mitigate or and reverse the trend is to implement an aggressive vaccination program5. Politics needn’t be part of this, but education does. If legal US residents, visitors, and illegal migrants alike understand the importance of vaccines and have access to receive them, then the entire health of the US population will benefit. Second, those who are already sick should be treated and cared for properly until they recover fully. These are only two actions. They could be put into practice fairly quickly but would require funds, time, and expertise. The question is: Do we have the will to implement and see them come to fruition?

 

1

https://www.cdcfoundation.org/what-public-health

 

2

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(21)00066-5/fulltext

 

3

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7150340/#:~:text=An%20infectious%20disease%20can%20be,object%20to%20a%20susceptible%20host

 

4

The point of this article is to address some public health issues and offer actions can be put in place immediately to mitigate or even eradicate infectious diseases. It is not a forum for discussing the massive onslaught of illegal entries. That problem must be addressed elsewhere.

 

5

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/next-health-crisis-coming-across-border-theres-still-time-stop

*** Topic for The Week of June 10, 2024 ***
What's Your Answer?

Recently, I took a picture at our pond and posted it on Instagram (@helenhvettori) with the following comment, “A swan has taken up residence in our pond. What do you think that means?” I thought it might portend good things for my sci-fi political thriller, Black Swan Impact, but some wondered if it was a harbinger of a black swan event to come. If you care to gauge your readiness for a potential disaster that may affect you, go to https://open.substack.com/pub/helenhvettori/p/whats-your-answer?r=1q0qvk&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web. There you will find related questions designed for you to consider and answer.

*** Topic for The Week of June 3, 2024 ***
Risks of Drinking Raw Milk

There are several foodborne illnesses that one could potentially contract when drinking milk straight from the cow. Don’t get me wrong, I drank it as a child and enjoyed its creaminess, but I urge you to refrain from doing so now because aside from Bird flu you could get food poisoning from bacteria such as Salmonella, E. coli, Listeria, and Campylobacter on any given day. On the FDA’s website, you can find a warning referring to the bacterial risks, “These bacteria can seriously injure the health of anyone who drinks raw milk or eats products made from raw milk … [and] raw milk can be especially dangerous to people with weakened immune systems, … children, older adults, and pregnant women1.” Further, if you think drinking raw milk might be like vaccinating yourself against Avian flu, there is no proof that it will enable you build immunity to H5N1.

Therefore, before drinking unpasteurized milk, educate yourself by reading articles like About raw Milk2, 'Playing Russian roulette with your health': Officials warn that social media trend of consuming raw milk will not protect you from bird flu3, or Seriously, don't drink the raw milk: Social media doubles down despite bird flu outbreak4. Completely understand both sides of the argument.

As you might have guessed, I do not recommend drinking unpasteurized milk, but I do endorse pasteurized milk. In my opinion, the risks for many foodborne illnesses are too high when consuming raw cow’s milk. Ultimately, you make your own decision. You are your best advocate for your personal health.

1
https://www.fda.gov/food/buy-store-serve-safe-food/dangers-raw-milk-unpasteurized-milk-can-pose-serious-health-risk#:~:text=Raw%20milk%20can%20carry%20dangerous,products%20made%20from%20raw%20milk

2
https://www.rawmilkinstitute.org/about-raw-milk

3
https://www.livescience.com/health/viruses-infections-disease/playing-russian-roulette-with-your-health-officials-warn-that-social-media-trend-of-consuming-raw-milk-will-not-protect-you-from-bird-flu

4
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2024/05/14/raw-milk-health-impact-bird-flu/73685527007/

n text.

*** Topic for the Week of May 27, 2024 ***
The US government ramping up surveillance and concern regarding Bird flu

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and other agencies are ramping up surveillance and concern regarding the H5N1 virus commonly called Bird flu or Avian influenza. Let’s see what that means.

***

Last month I wrote about H5N1, commonly called Bird flu or Avian influenza. It was not the first article that I wrote about the subject. It likely won’t be the last because periodically the virus has reared its ugly head in dramatic fashion. Today, we will look at what the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and other agencies have done this month to address the latest H5N1 concerns.

 

On May 17, 2024, the CDC updated its site on Bird flu. It stated, “CDC continues to respond to the public health challenge posed by a multistate outbreak of avian influenza A(H5N1) virus … in dairy cows and other animals in the United States. CDC is working in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), state public health and animal health officials, and other partners using a One Health approach.¹” One Health approach means CDC, USDA, FDA, state public health and animal heath officials, and others have joined to address the current outbreak as a unified team. Rather than having multiple agencies working disparately, they will work synergistically. The unified team will ensure that monitoring those infected and surveilling for increases in outbreaks will be more efficient and effective. Consequently, officials should become aware of a broader potential threat and react in a timely manner, keeping us safer from and more prepared for the virus.

 

So, you may wonder why this matters to you if the expert professionals are on it. You can reduce your risk of exposure to this avian virus. For example, if you see a dead bird, keep yourself and others, including animals, away from it. Then, report the location of the dead bird to officials, so they may not only remove the potentially diseased bird but can test it to prove that it did or did not have H5N1. Avoid any sick animals, and if you must be near them, ensure you know what has infected them. Avoid poop from birds and any sick animals. Wash your hands frequently. (It’s the number one way to protect yourself from any disease.) Do not drink unpasteurized milk.

 

The bottom line for all of us not involved with monitoring and planning and preparing for a Bird flu outbreak is we needn’t panic. Simply use common sense. Watch out for sick animals and stay away from them. Keep current with news. That could include looking for additional articles that I might post because I tend to follow potential biothreats².

1
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/spotlights/2023-2024/bird-flu-update_05172024.html

2
Note: Understand that I have access only to open-source media, making my ability to offer insights or timely posts no better than you can find yourself.

*** Topic for The Week of May 20, 2024 ***
If Russia used chemical weapons on Ukraine forces, what’s next?

     There are many treaties and conventions signed by over 150 countries that ban the use of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear weapons. The first convention to ban chemical weapon warfare occurred in 1925 after their horrifying use in World War I. More documents related to chemical weapons and then for all weapons of mass destruction (WMD) have been signed by many countries over the years. Nonetheless, despite being signatories, it appears that Russia used chemical weapons on Ukrainian troops on May 1, 2024.

***

     On May 1, 2024, the U.S. Department of State placed a fact sheet on their website. The fact sheet is called, Imposing New Measures on Russia for its Full-Scale War and Use of Chemical Weapons Against Ukraine1. It states, “The Department of State is concurrently delivering to Congress a determination pursuant to the Chemical and Biological Weapons Control and Warfare Elimination Act of 1991 (CBW Act) regarding Russia’s use of the chemical weapon chloropicrin against Ukrainian troops” and will sanction more than 280 individuals and entities to impose additional costs on Russia as a direct result of Russia’s aggressions2. The State Department actions are necessary but beg the question: will they be enough to reign in Russia?

     Despite Russia’s denial, on May 2, 2024, the New York Times informed, “Ukrainian authorities have reported about 1,400 cases of suspected chemical weapons use on the battlefield3.” The suspected usage of chemical weapons has been ongoing since February 2022, making it appear to be a Russian military accepted tactic. With such blatant disregard for treaties and bans, what WMD might Russia unleash next and where? On several occasions, Putin has said nuclear options are on the table. Could biological threats be in the mix, too?

Moreover, Russia and China openly displayed mutual support when Xi visited Putin this past week. Such a display may be a sign of unimaginable escalations in the future. The timing clearly put the world on notice that the two powers could join together if the war in Ukraine worsen and/or China expands its territory to Taiwan.

     Could an all-out global conflict follow? Albert Einstein said, “I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.4” We cannot and should not realize Einstein’s statement.

     Most of us ordinary U.S. citizens cannot defend against chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear threats at home much less around the world. However, we can act by voting for our local, state, and federal leadership. By electing candidates that we believe to be aware of this situation, we can expect our government to monitor, plan, and prepare for WMD potential threats. Better yet, we could avoid Einstein’s grim prediction.

*** Topic for the Week of May 13, 2024 ***
Cover Designs for Next Two Books in Black Swan Trilogy

     A black swan event is a catastrophic incident that could not be imagined or foreseen. Black Swan Impact was the first in a series of three books. The significant overarching theme for the trilogy is the unfathomable effect of and required response to three major but different disasters. Black Swan Shock is the title of the second book and Black Swan Terror is the title for the third book. 

     You may remember that I designed the cover for Black Swan Impact. Art and creativity are two of my passions, so it made sense for me to do so. Likewise, I have designed the covers for Black Swan Shock and Black Swan Terror. Look for them to be available in the coming months or years.

*** Topic for The Week of May 6, 2024 ***
Reprint of April 25, 2024, Loudoun Now Article, TV Spotlight, And Contest

Norman K. Styer, a journalist for Loudoun Now, interviewed me in mid-March. Below is a reprint of the April 25, 2024, article, but you may also find it online at: https://www.loudounnow.com/getoutloudoun/putting-the-spotlight-on-local-authors/article_11230af6-0322-11ef-a524-bb22b2ab615a.html.

***

     The last Saturday in April each year is celebrated as Independent Bookstore Day across the country. On April 27, Birch Tree Bookstore in Leesburg plans a full day of activities from a morning storytime to an afternoon local author showcase. Also, Middleburg Books has two special author events this week, featuring Mike Vickers on Thursday and Scott Gates on Saturday.

 

     This week, we also put the spotlight on some local authors by highlighting some of the new books that have come across our desks during the past few months showcasing first time and experienced authors.

Black Swan Impact

By Helen Hynson Vettori

In the years before the COVID-19 pandemic, Leesburg resident Helen Hynson Vettori was on the front line of the national planning for just such an emergency. But when the virus arrived, she had retired from her post at the Department of Homeland Security and endured the lockdown with the rest of us.

She put her time in relative isolation to productive work—writing “Black Swan Impact,” the first book in a planned sci-fi political thriller trilogy. Set in 2113, the book follows the efforts of Dr. Syia Case, the National Institutes of Health’s director of epidemiology, as she works to guide the nation through a deadly pandemic even as the president and other political leaders steer the county on a questionable course.

“I wrote it in response to my utter dismay at the poor response to COVID-19,” Vettori said in a recent interview. “The reason why it was particularly burdensome to me was I was in the federal government workforce planning and preparing for such an event. I retired before COVID. But even though it was a couple of years after I retired, I felt sure that all the planning and preparing that we had done would be a good base, and that people who had taken over the reins would move forward and adjust as necessary. Blunders and missteps just came in abundance. And it really, it got me very, I'll say uneasy and disappointed.”

A seventh generation Washingtonian, Vettori felt her public service calling early in life.

“When I was five years old, I had one of those little pedal fire engines and every time I would hear a crash, which was probably at least once a month, I'd get my little firetruck pedal down to it and watch with awe how the rescue squad aided in and helped,” she said. “So, when it was time for me to go to kindergarten, my mother said you have to go in now she was trying to get me to go in and I was hesitant. She said, ‘why don't you want to go into school?’ I said because I'm going to be a firefighter and I don't have to go to the school. I have to go to fireman school.”

She did grow up to become a paramedic EMT. She was doing that and working as a schoolteacher at the time of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorists attacks. 

That event prompted her to do more. She joined the Department of Homeland Security as a senior medical intelligence analyst.

“Ultimately, due to reorganizations and this and that, I ended up in the National Incident Response Unit where I was cast to be the person who would plan and prepare for biological incidents to include pandemics,” she said.

“I had to look ahead and analyze what things were on the radar, and what possible interventions they should or could take. And it was only then that I realized there's a lot out there and that Mother Nature alone can just devastate us—not to mention terrorism or accidents. That just hadn't really occurred to me,” she said. “9/11, I think, was pivotal for many, many, many people, perhaps everyone in the United States and even around the world. It certainly was pivotal for me and the direction I took and my interests. To this day, I'm still very much interested in Mother Nature, pandemics, how people respond to biological threats.”

While retired and on the sidelines as COVID-19 spread around the world, Vettori said she and her former co-workers were frustrated watching the federal response. 

“We were just dumbfounded and, quite frankly, appalled. When it's new, you're gonna make mistakes, but you fix them and move forward with very, very firm and foreseeable milestones. I just never saw that happening,” she said.

Do Dr. Case and her colleagues fare better in their response to the Pyongyang Virus in 2113? “Black Swan Impact” was released March 28 and is available in bookstores and online in book and audio format.

Vettori plans to be at Birch Tree Bookstore in Leesburg on Saturday, April 27 from noon to 3 p.m. as part of a local author showcase on Independent Bookstore Day.

Learn more at helenhvettori.wixsite.com/black-swan-impact.

—Norman K. Styer …

(Five other author interviews followed, but I did not include them. If you wish to read the rest of the spotlights, you can use this hyperlink: https://www.loudounnow.com/getoutloudoun/putting-the-spotlight-on-local-authors/article_11230af6-0322-11ef-a524-bb22b2ab615a.html)

***

Here is the link to the NBC4 interview by Jummy Olabanji. It aired on May 1, 2024. It’s on my Instagram account.

helenhvettori

 

A post shared by @helenhvettori

***

Please vote for the Black Swan Impact cover on allauthor.com. The category for the month is Mystery & Thriller. Your votes choose the winner just like the People’s Choice Award. I hope you like the cover for Black Swan Impact and will show that appreciation by voting for it. The contest is a month-long, multi staged contest, so if my cover gets through the first round, I’ll ask for your votes again. Thank you.

https://allauthor.com/cover-of-the-month/

*** Topic for The Week of April 29, 2024 ***
Black Swan Impact Newsletter Survey Analysis And Avian Influenza Article

     The survey results for all eight questions regarding the posts that I have sent to you since September 2022, may be found below. Your feedback allowed me to understand what topics have resonated with you. The overall takeaway is that you enjoy weekly articles or essays related to my sci-fi political thriller and biohazards. Therefore, you will find a short post related to avian influenza below the stats and more posts related to Black Swan Impact and current and historical biothreats going forward.

***

SURVEY RESULTS

1.      I became a Black Swan Impact Newsletter subscriber in ____ .

100 %    2022

0 %        2023     

0 %        2024

2.      I prefer Black Swan Impact Newsletter topics related to _____ .

33 %      the novel Black Swan Impact

33 %      current and historical biothreats

17 %      any black swan threats

0 %        trivia

17%       guest interviews

3.      The weekly posts piqued my interest in the sci-fi political thriller Black Swan Impact.

100 %    Yes

0 %        No

0 %        Undecided

4.      The weekly posts related to biothreats piqued my interest in the subject, and I would like to see more of them in the future.

83 %      Yes

0 %        No

17 %      Undecided

5.      The weekly posts related to any black swan event piqued my interest in that subject, and I would like to see more of them in the future.

67 %      Yes

0 %        No

17 %      Undecided

6.      I will continue to read topics written by Helen Hynson Vettori.

100 %    Yes

0 %        No

0 %        Undecided

7.      I would prefer to receive a topic written by Helen Hynson Vettori in _____ intervals.

50 %      weekly

17 %      monthly

17 %      quarterly

17 %      irregular

8.      I ______ recommend(ed) this publication to others.

100 %    have

0 %        will

0 %        may

0 %        will not

***

     Earlier this month you may have seen news reports like this one: CDC issues bird flu health alert to clinicians, state health departments, public after Texas farmer infected1. A few days ago, Megan Molteni reported, Early tests of H5N1 prevalence in milk suggest U.S. bird flu outbreak in cows is widespread2. Additionally, you may remember my February 19, 2024, post (Topic # 71) Suffering Animals, But Not Why You Think. I presented the topic then and again now because avian influenza has been circulating in many countries and concerning infectious disease experts since 1997. I do not intend to set off alarm bells, merely suggest that we keep abreast of this virus in responsible ways. That being the case, here are some facts concerning this potential biothreat to humans and my thoughts.

  1. Avian influenza, or H5N1, is a bird disease and does not infect humans easily. Should we consider it as a potential threat nonetheless - not in a frantic way but with adequate thought and measure?

  2. Since 1997, there have been about 900 sporadic human cases reported in 23 countries. Rounding up equates to an average of 34 human infections per year. To put that in perspective, the World Health Organization documents 1,000 – 2,000 cases of human plague cases annually, seven of which on average occur in the USA3. These statistics may cause us to dismiss this potential threat, but should they?

  3. Of the 900 human H5N1 cases, about half of them died, making it a very virulent disease. However, recent farmers who have contracted it have experienced mild symptoms. It is unknown if this is an ongoing trend or an anomaly and, therefore, should be studied. If the trend becomes the norm, then could reduce our concern or maintain surveillance?

  4. When a virus jumps from one species to another, it can mutate to become highly infectious and potentially extremely deadly to humans. However, cows are not good viral mixing vessels for viruses to achieve adequate human exploitation mutations4. Pigs are ideal mixing vessels for viruses to be able to mutate into one that can threaten humans. With this current outbreak in cattle, should farmers keep pigs and cows apart and how far apart is adequate?

  5. Although avian flu traces have been found in milk, the FDA states that “that H5N1, which is heat-sensitive, is very likely killed through the process of pasteurization.5” Should we, as consumers, challenge that statement? Pasteurization has been a successful safeguard for a long time, but should we accept the phrase “very likely killed”?

  6. Currently, antivirals like oseltamivir remain effective human treatment for H5N16. However, wouldn’t it be naive to believe they won’t become less efficacious with future avian flu mutations?

 

     The bottom line is scientists and infectious disease experts should continue to monitor avian influenza just as they have done over the past 27 years. That is the reason the CDC called for physicians to watch for and report cases of the disease. It is also why scientists are testing milk supplies in wider areas. However, those actions alone should not encourage us to be complacent or unimaginative. Perhaps H5N1 will never become a human pandemic, but I urge that we challenge elected officials, government entities, and even private sector executives to lean forward by planning and preparing for a widespread H5N1 outbreak. As Benjamin Franklin said, “By failing to prepare, you're preparing to fail.”

 

***

On April 6th, I will reprint a Loudoun Now article written about me and Black Swan Impact and provide a link to an NBC4 interview.

***

 

1

https://www.foxnews.com/health/cdc-issues-bird-flu-health-alert-clinicians-state-health-departments-public-texas-farmer-infected

 

2

https://www.statnews.com/2024/04/25/h5n1-bird-flu-cows-outbreak-likely-widespread/

 

3

https://www.cdc.gov/plague/faq/index.html#cases

 

4

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2024/04/11/1243954362/bird-flu-spread-cattle-mutations-respiratory-human-risk

 

5

https://www.statnews.com/2024/04/25/h5n1-bird-flu-cows-outbreak-likely-widespread/

 

6

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/novel-av-treatment-guidance.htm

*** Topics for The week of April 15 and 22, 2024 ***

Over the next two weeks, you may opt to weigh in on two surveys - one each week. Click on the button below to go to the site. For the week of April 15th, the topic number is 80 and called "Black Swan Impact Future". Topic # 81 for the week of April 22nd is called "Rate Black Swan Impact".

*** Topic for The Week of April 8, 2024 ***
Blog Announcement

In 1999, President Bill Clinton said, that of all the new threats, the one that ''keeps me awake at night'' is the possibility of germ attack*. Even Mother Nature can attack us with a microorganism that threatens mankind. That scenario could keep you up all night and is woven into the plot for Black Swan Impact.

The blog Ladies of Mystery, Stories That Keep You Awake All Night** will feature Black Swan Impact and me on November 2, 2024. Look for the post when it is released.

* https://www.google.com/search?q=president+who+said+that+biothreats+keep+me+awake+at+night&sca_esv=22acf6a4d5946a83&sxsrf=ACQVn087a0W_od7DV4h1DBJJI7HZOfpiHw%3A1711281291515&ei=ixQAZrWBH8qt5NoP8PC3kAE&ved=0ahUKEwj18vbL64yFAxXKFlkFHXD4DRIQ4dUDCBA&uact=5&oq=president+who+said+that+biothreats+keep+me+awake+at+night&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiOXByZXNpZGVudCB3aG8gc2FpZCB0aGF0IGJpb3RocmVhdHMga2VlcCBtZSBhd2FrZSBhdCBuaWdodEiCMFCuC1i8LHABeAGQAQCYAW-gAYUHqgEDOC4yuAEDyAEA-AEBmAIGoAKBBMICChAAGEcY1gQYsAPCAggQABiABBiiBJgDAIgGAZAGCJIHAzMuM6AH-xc&sclient=gws-wiz-serp

** https://ladiesofmystery.com/

*** Topic for The Week of March 25, 2024 ***
Black Swan Impact Book Worldwide Release

On March 28, 2024, my sci-fi political thriller, Black Swan Impact, will hit the shelves of bookstores worldwide. You may purchase it at stores like Barnes & Noble (USA), Dymocks (AU), Wheelers (NZ), Foyles (UK), or your favorite bookstore. You may also order it online, if course. Check out sites like the Austin Macauley Publishers website, Amazon (Worldwide), or The Book Depository (Worldwide). Regardless of how you get your copy, enjoy the read but consider the underlying message: We must learn from our emergency management missteps and outright blunders, so that we can avoid repeating them when future crises arise. 

*** Topic for The Week of March 18, 2024 ***
Author Appearances

Look for in person or virtual appearances by Helen Hynson Vettori. See the schedule below. Book Launch date and location will be announced separately.

APRIL 2, 2024

Interview by Jummy Olabanji, NBC4 News Anchor

Taping

Airdate to be determined

 

APRIL 27, 2024

Independent Bookstore Day - Local Author Showcase

Birch Tree Bookstore

Leesburg, VA

12:00 – 3:00 pm

 

May 3, 2024

Author Appearance

Books And Other Found Things

Leesburg, VA

6:00 – 9:00 pm

 

MAY 14, 2024

Author Appearance

Voyageur Books

Milwaukee, WI

6:30 – 7:30 pm

*** Topic for The Week of March 11, 2024 ***
Black Swan Impact Frequently Asked Questions, Part 2

Black Swan Impact will be available in 2 ½ weeks. The release date is March 28, 2024. Look for it at your favorite bookstore, online, or at your local library. Request it if you don’t find it. The ISB numbers can help the purchaser find what you’re looking for [SBN 9798889100911 (Paperback), ISBN 9798889100928 (Hardback), ISBN 9798889100942 (ePub e-book), ISBN 9798889100935 (Audiobook)].


***


1.    Why did Vettori write the sci-fi political novel?

Vettori wrote Black Swan Impact as a result of her deep concerns regarding the US Federal Government’s response to SARS COVID-19. When COVID-19 emerged, she had already retired from the Department of Homeland Security workforce, but knew the plans and preparations for biological threats, including pandemics, that had taken place since 2005. During her years of service, she had played a major role in completing them. As the outbreak gripped the world, she became increasingly appalled by official actions or lack thereof and confusing messaging. The Federal Government’s miscues and confusion in response to COVID-19 caused her a great deal of exasperation, and she voiced her thoughts to her family and close friends. One day in 2020, her sister suggested that those statements sounded like the foundation for a book. Vettori put words on paper. They became cathartic for her as she confronted her disappointments ultimately writing Black Swan Impact.

2.    What does Helen Hynson Vettori like to do when she’s not writing a book?

When Helen Hynson Vettori is not writing a book, she’s reading one. Some of her favorite characters are Mitch Rapp, Jack Reacher, Claire and Jamie Fraser, and Alice (in Wonderland). If there is a movie or show associated with one of her favorite books or characters, she might be watching it. Aside from literature and film, she loves art. Viewing it or creating it herself, she can spend hours in her studio. Here is an example of one of her recent paintings. However, perhaps the thing she loves to do most is to spend time with her family at home or while traveling.

3.    Did Helen Hynson Vettori weave some of her travel experiences into Black Swan Impact and, if so, give some examples?

Yes, Vettori loves to relive her travels, so she does place some of those memories in her fiction. She weaves Italy, Nepal, and Alaska into Black Swan Impact.

4.    Where may I find reviews for Black Swan Impact?

The first five reviews of Black Swan Impact may be found here on the Black Swan Impact Website: https://helenhvettori.wixsite.com/black-swan-impact along with many other facets relevant to the sci-fi political thriller and Helen Hynson Vettori.

 

5.    How do you pronounce Helen Hynson Vettori?

HELL-lun   HIN-suhn   Ve-TOR-ee
 

*** Topic for The Week of March 4, 2024 ***
Black Swan Impact Frequently Asked Questions, Part 1

  1. What is a Black Swan?

A black swan is a catastrophic incident or event that no one could have foreseen or imagined because of its unprecedented impact.

 

   2. What is the novel Black Swan Impact about?

Black Swan Impact is a sci-fi political thriller that takes place in 2113. Having recovered from the devastation of World War III and reaching new scientific advancements, people believe only prosperity lies ahead until an emerging deadly pandemic threatens all of humanity. Dr. Syia (SĪ-yuh) Case, National Institutes of Health Director of Epidemiology, is invited to advise US President Daniel Piper and the White House Crisis Action Team to try to mitigate the threat. Actions required to protect US citizens from the lethal virus become increasingly challenging. However, when Piper steers the country toward questionable courses, Dr. Case and the strident voices on the task force find there is more than a virulent virus to fight.

 

   3. What genre is Black Swan Impact and how do I find it?

Black Swan Impact is a 330 page, sci-fi political thriller. Beginning March 28, 2024, you may find it at bookstores or Online in text or audio format.

 

   4. What made Helen Hynson Vettori, the author of Black Swan Impact, uniquely qualified to write the sci-fi political thriller?

A seventh generation Washingtonian (DC), Helen Hynson Vettori grew up in the shadows of the Washington National Cathedral, surrounded by the federal government and its political practices from her earliest days. However, her bona fides stem from her emergency medical knowledge as a volunteer EMT and paramedic in the Bethesda-Chevy Chase Rescue Squad and her career in the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). While serving in DHS she was a senior medical intelligence officer and emergency manager fellow. She worked tirelessly planning and preparing for biological threats, including pandemics and received an employee of the year award for Excellence In Emergency Management in 2013. 

 

   5. Are book club questions available for Black Swan Impact?

Yes, there are book club questions for Black Swan Impact. They may be found at the end of the book or on the Black Swan Impact Website: https://helenhvettori.wixsite.com/black-swan-impact.

*** Topic for The Week of February 26, 2024 ***
Pre-order Black Swan Impact

Let the final countdown begin. You can pre-order my sci-fi political thriller on Amazon now. Use the button below to link to the site. Black Swan Impact will be available for immediate purchase in bookstores and online beginning March 28, 2024.

*** Topic for The Week of February 19, 2024 ***
Suffering Animals But Not Why You Think

     On January 15, 2024, a Washington Post reporter, Gino Grandoni, wrote an article called An unprecedented flu strain is attacking hundreds of animal species. Humans could be next1. The article began by painting a grim picture of hundreds, if not thousands, of dead elephant seals littering the beaches of Patagonia. Further, that catastrophic scene was not unique. Grandoni reported, “An estimated 17,000 elephant seal pups seals died there last year of a strain of avian influenza, victims of an unprecedented panzootic — a pandemic among animals — that has struck at least 320 types of birds and dozens of species of mammals.” This should raise an alarm that the virus raging in that world could jump into the humans’.

     A similar alarm rose in 2005, when birds, particularly apparent in chicken farms, increasingly became sick and died at astounding rates. Surveillance indicated that the H5N1 virus had the ability to spread easily and kill wild and domestic birds aggressively. The virulent and novel virus was on the move worldwide. Concern over this virus jumping into the human population and developing into a pandemic was so great that President Bush directed the entire United States government to plan and prepare for the scenario. (See Topic #s 1, 4, and 17.) Other governments around the world did so, as well.

     Viruses mutate often and can jump into species they normally do not infect due to their ability to reassort. Reassortment is the process where two or more viruses infect the same single host cell and exchange RNA segments. This explains why an avian flu has the potential to jump into the human population. For example, pigs can be “mixing vessels”. In addition to porcine viruses, they can contract both human and avian viruses. If the human and avian influenza viruses exchange RNA at the cellular level within the ailing pig, a new human virus can spread directly to handlers via airborne or fomite transmission, or indirectly through water or soil contamination.

     We dodged the potential pandemic from H5N1 in the early 2000s, but should we address the threat in 2024? Surely, we are fatigued by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and likely wish to give other things our attention. However, the adage plan for the worst and hope for the best applies here. I spent my career in the Department of Homeland Security planning and preparing for biological threats, making me an advocate for such actions. This threat should not be ignored.

***

     On March 28, 2024, you can read my sci-fi political thrill, Black Swan Impact, and experience the fear and horror imposed by a pandemic that threatens to devastate the people living in 2113. The final countdown for the release of the sci-fi political thriller will begin next week.

1

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/01/15/bird-avian-flu-seal/

*** Topic for The Week of February 12, 2024 ***
Lyme Disease Quiz

  1. The name for Lyme disease got its name because the first identified case was identified in Lyme, Massachusetts.

 

     a. True

     b. False

 

   2. Lyme disease is the most common vector borne disease in the United States.

 

     a. True

     b. False

  3.    Lyme disease is caused by a …

     a.    Virus transmitted by a tick.
     b.    Bacterium transmitted by a tick.
     c.    Mold that rubs off of a tick.
     d.    Fungus that rubs off of a tick.

  4. Lyme disease is found in more than …

     a. 40 countries worldwide.

     b. 60 countries worldwide.

     c. 80 countries worldwide.

     d. 100 countries worldwide.

​5. Which action or actions can you undertake to protect yourself from being infected by the bite from a tick?

     a. Perform frequent and thorough tick checks.

     b. Wear long sleeves, long pants, and tuck your pants into your socks.

     c. Wear proper repellents.

     d. All of the above.

 

​   6. You must exhibit a rash if you truly have Lyme disease.

     a. True

     b. False

​  7. Lyme disease is never fatal.

     a. True

     b. False

  8. Lyme disease and its treatment is controversial in the medical community.

     a. True

     b. False

Answers

  1. a. False. It was Lyme, Connecticut.

  2. a. True

  3. b. Bacterium that is transmitted by a tick.

  4. c. 80 countries worldwide.

  5. d. All of the above.

  6. b. False

  7. b. False. Lyme can be fatal albeit extremely rare.

  8. a. True. Lyme disease is controversial in the medical community. One faction believes that it is is hard to catch and easy to cure with a course or two of antibiotics. The other faction argues that patients require prolonged and multiple antibiotic treatment because the bacterium is elusive and difficult to kill.

***

Note: I gleaned facts from the sites listed below. You may wish to visit one or more of them for additional information.

https://portal.ct.gov/DPH/Epidemiology-and-Emerging-Infections/A-Brief-History-of-Lyme-Disease-in-Connecticut

https://www.cdc.gov/lyme/index.html#:~:text=Lyme%20disease%20is%20the%20most,bite%20of%20infected%20blacklegged%20ticks

https://lymediseaseassociation.org/

*** Topic for The Week of February 5, 2024 ***
Lyme Disease: The Unfortunate Reality

               Chances are you or someone you know has been diagnosed with Lyme disease. Annually, approximately 476,000 Americans receive that diagnosis and treated for it*. Let’s compare that number to a few other diseases, so you can understand it impacts individuals and the healthcare system in the United States. Statistics for each of the four diseases vary in the way they are recorded and some data are not available. However, I extrapolated information as best I could.

                Lyme disease - 476,000 annual cases

                Heart disease – As of 2018, 30.3 million U.S. adults were diagnosed with heart disease**.

                COVID-19 – In the first week of 2024, 35,000 people were hospitalized***. This statistic refers only to hospitalizations and not the total number of cases. Reporting the total number of cases is no longer available. Further, many cases go unreported to medical professionals as those who are mildly sick often weather the infection on their own. Therefore, I estimate 420,000 Americans have been already or will be infected over the course of the year.

                HIV – In 2021, 36,136 Americans received an HIV diagnosis****.

               Another astounding fact associated with Lyme disease is that the annual aggregate cost to society has an estimate of $345–968 million*****. Individuals can see overwhelming costs not only to their wallet but to their health, as well. If not caught early, Lyme disease can progress into a debilitating disease.

              

Do you know what some of those debilitating symptoms are? Some are:

  • Severe headaches

  • Facial palsy (loss of muscle tone or droop on one or both sides of the face)

  • Arthritis with severe joint pain and swelling, particularly the knees and other large joints.

  • Episodes of dizziness or shortness of breath******

 

With such facts, why isn’t Lyme disease education and prevention prevalent in the media? Why aren’t we educated by healthcare professionals or the CDC often? I can’t answer those questions but can offer a thought. Individuals can educate themselves and others.

* https://www.cdc.gov/lyme/stats/humancases.html

** https://www.healthline.com/health/heart-disease/statistics#Who-is-at-risk

*** https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_weeklyhospitaladmissions_select_00

**** https://www.cdc.gov/hiv/basics/statistics.html#:~:text=In%202021%2C%2036%2C136%20people%20received,United%20States%20and%20dependent%20areas.&text=The%20annual%20number%20of%20new,7%25%20from%202017%20to%202021

***** https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/28/6/21-1335_article

****** https://www.cdc.gov/lyme/signs_symptoms/index.html

*** Topic for The Week of January 29, 2024 ***
Facemasks: Dangerous or Not?

     In April 2023, due to findings from a study, media reported that facemasks could be dangerous and not an effective protective measure against COVID or other similar airborne illness. Credence to the statement gained traction at first because the results of the study seemed to be sponsored by the National Institutes of Health (NIH). Titled Measuring the quantity of harmful volatile organic compounds inhaled through masks* was, in fact, included in the National Library of Medicine (NLM). Yet what seemed to be overlooked by media reports was the disclaimer posted by NIH: “As a library, NLM provides access to scientific literature. Inclusion in an NLM database does not imply endorsement of, or agreement with, the contents by NLM or the National Institutes of Health.” Therefore, we shall give equal weight to both the study and the disclaimer as we consider potential adverse dangers resulting from wearing facemasks.

     If you refer to Topics # 2, 9, 20, 46, and 47 from this Black Swan Impact newsletter site, you will affirm that I not only advocate the use of facemasks, particularly N95s, but don them myself when appropriate. However, if there were a scientific reason prohibiting the use of facemasks, then I would reverse my stance and warn you. Therefore, I looked carefully at the paper, Measuring the quantity of harmful volatile organic compounds inhaled through masks*, written by two Jeonbuk National University researchers. They concluded that some commonly used facemasks, namely KFAD and KF94, offput potentially dangerous levels of volatile organic compounds (VOCs)1..

     Many VOCs are human-made chemicals that may be found in certain paint, pharmaceutical, cosmetic, refrigerant, and hobby products**. VOCs have been linked to cancer, as well as cardiac, respiratory, liver, neurological and endocrine diseases***. Such information shocked me, and I was set to reverse my advocacy of donning facemasks.

     However, as I looked deeper, I understood the study was limited. Pointedly, it did not include N95s or KN95s. Further, the study also noted that the saturation of VOCs diminished greatly after the KFADs and KF94s had been removed from packaging and exposed to room air for 30 minutes* ***.

     Therefore, I see nothing in the Jeonbuk National University mask study that would prevent us from using National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) approved facemasks when appropriate. I will continue to be a proponent of donning them, particularly N95s, but suggest that you air out your facemasks for at least 30 minutes prior to donning them as an abundance of caution. Moreover, I will continue to keep abreast of news that may offer more information that could reverse my advocacy of the personal protective equipment, and I urge you to consider all the facts, as well.

 

* https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10112860/

** https://www.epa.gov/indoor-air-quality-iaq/what-are-volatile-organic-compounds-vocs

*** https://doctordaliah.wordpress.com/2023/08/27/nih-published-study-reveals-toxic-chemical-exposure-with-use-of-medical-grade-masks/

***

*** Topic for The Week of January 22, 2024 ***
First Zombie Viruses And Now Vampire Viruses!

     You may recall the newsletter Topic #19 distributed on February 6, 2023. The title of the article was Zombie Viruses, and began, “Zombies are not just fictitious undead in literature or film.  Nature tries to keep them hidden, yet there are such things as Zombie viruses!  They may be defined as microorganisms that emerge after being dormant for millennia and never having circulated amongst humans.” Seemingly equally preposterous, we now will explore the subject of Vampire viruses.
     A strain of the MiniFlayer virus or satellite virus, this recently (November 2023) discovered virus evolved a short appendage that allows it to latch onto another virus’s neck like a vampire. The reason the Vampire virus does that is because it must depend on a “helper” to replicate. Having lost its ability to lie dormant and subsequently attach to a living cell, the Vampire virus sinks its “teeth” onto an active helper virus. By doing so the helper virus will carry it to a living cell where the two viruses can inject their RNA*.
     Do not confuse this new microorganism with the unrated horror film Vampire Virus (2020), which received a dismal rating of 3.3 stars out of 10 from IMDb. Instead, understand that this discovery can open new avenues for scientists to leverage in their quest to combat viral diseases. Perhaps a vaccine can mimic the Vampire virus by attaching to the unwelcome pathogen and injecting some countermeasure into it. Time will tell.

* By injecting RNA into living cells viruses can replicate (proliferate).
 

*** Topic for The Week of January 15, 2024 ***
Disaster Trivia

     Disasters can be large or small, but when they affect you, they can be devastating regardless of size. Hopefully, the only experience you have with disasters is in this trivia realm.

  1. At 9.5 on the Moment Magnitude scale, where was the largest earthquake ever recorded?  (Hint: It occurred in 1960.)

    1. Indonesia

    2. Mediterranean Sea

    3. Japan

    4. Chile

  2. What is the approximate number of active volcanos worldwide?

    1. 1, 800

    2. 1,900

    3. 2,000

    4. 2,100

  3. Hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones are different types of storms.

    1. True

    2. False

  4. In 1972, Iran had a week-long blizzard that killed approximately 4000 people.

    1. True

    2. False

  5. The world’s deadliest tsunami was the Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004, and released the same amount of energy as …

    1. 9,000 Hiroshima-type atomic bombs.

    2. 16,000 Hiroshima-type atomic bombs.

    3. 23,000 Hiroshima-type atomic bombs.

    4. 30,000 Hiroshima-type atomic bombs.

  6. In China in 1958, massive flooding killed an estimated …

    1. 1 million people.

    2. 1.5 million people.

    3. 2 million people

    4. 2.5 million people.

  7. Mrs. O’Leary’s cow is most often blamed for an 1871 fire that destroyed much of …

    1. Fresno, CA.

    2. Chicago, IL.

    3. St. Louis, MO.

    4. Des Moines, IO.

  8. Between 2000 and 2012, natural disasters caused $1.7 trillion in damage and affected 2.9 billion people.

    1. A. True

    2. False

 

Answers

  1. d. Chile

  2. b. 1,900

  3. b. False

  4. a. True

  5. c. 2,300 Hiroshima-type atomic bombs.

  6. c. 2 million people.

  7. b. Chicago, IL

  8. a. True

***

Facts came from the following sites: https://news.heritagehyundaibaltimore.com/article/20-terrifying-natural-disaster-facts and https://www.dosomething.org/us/facts/11-facts-about-disasters.

*** Topic for the Week of January 8, 2024 ***
(Black) Swan Related Trivia

     As you know from multiple posting on this site, the term Black Swan describes a catastrophic incident that no one can foresee or imagine because of its unprecedented impact. Indeed, the title of my sci-fi political thriller uses the term prominently. However, this entry will focus on the animal by presenting facts related to it. 
1.    A black swan has all black plumage.
a.    True
b.    False
2.    The habitat for black swans is…
a.    Worldwide.
b.    Australia, New Zealand, and Tasmania.
c.    South Pacific Region.
d.    Australia and New Zealand.
3.    The lifespan of a black swan is up to …
a.    20 years.
b.    30 years.
c.    40 years.
d.    50 years.
4.    The term swan song comes from the ancient Greek belief that a swan sang a song of death when its life was about to end.
a.    True
b.    False
5.    Female swans are called …
a.    hens.
b.    pullets.
c.    jennys.
d.    pens.
6.    Male swans are called …
a.    cocks.
b.    cobs.
c.    tiercels.
d.    drakes.
7.    Young swans are called …
a.    cygnets.
b.    chicks.
c.    fledglings.
d.    subadults.
8.    The global population of the black swan is estimated between …
a.    100,000 to 700,000 individuals.
b.    100,000 to 800,000 individuals.
c.    100,000 to 900,000 individuals.
d.    100,000 to 1,000,000 individuals.

Answers
1.    a. False (It has dark body plumage with white feather tips on its wings.)
2.    b. Australia, New Zealand, and Tasmania.
3.    c. 40 years.
4.    a. True
5.    d. pens.
6.    b. cobs.
7.    a. cygnets. 
8.    d. 100,000 to 1,000,000 individuals.

Black swan facts came from the following site: https://seaworld.org/animals/facts/birds/black-swan/ 
***

 

*** Topic for the Week of December 18, 2023 ***
The Game Plague

     When I was teaching personnel how to protect themselves and others from deadly biological threats, someone introduced me to a game called Plague. It’s origin may surprise you, and it’s magnetism may dismay you, as well.

     The game Plague may be one you may wish to download from your app store¹. Be aware that some of you may consider it too dark because you choose a deadly microorganism to unleash on the world. Then your object is to use strategies that fortify your disease against environmental, scientific, and public health strategies so that it overwhelms the population of the world.

     This game requires you to consider options and leverage opportunities. Indeed, it may become almost addictive because it requires your attention to details and forward thinking. It may hearten many of you to know overwhelming the population of the world is difficult because the odds are against your disease. However, the game does mirror reality. The reason that it is so realistic is that Plague was born from actual disease modeling.

     Plague truly challenges a single player. However, if you do not care for solitary games, I understand the board game is a multiplayer version. Either way, just like Pinky and the Brain try to do every night, you and your biothreat may attempt to take over the world via this game. 

***

1
It also comes in a traditional board game.  Check out the Website https://www.ndemiccreations.com/en/22-plague-inc to learn more.

*** Topic for The Week of  December 11, 2024 ***
Pandemic, The Board Game

     Before COVID-19 entered our lives in 2019, my husband gave me the board game Pandemic.  Yes, as nerdy as that sounds, I was happy to receive it.  I love playing games, and I am interested in planning and preparing efforts to mitigate or prevent a disease that threatens our world.  The game Pandemic merged those two interests for me.  Further, you may be intrigued to know that Pandemic has won notoriety, awards, and praise since its introduction in 2008.


     Below are three links to sites that describe and/or endorse the game.  They include leacock.com, boardgamingparent.com, and boardgamebliss.com.  From those links you may glean a good understanding of Pandemic, but I will offer my review, as well.  The smart design of Pandemic gives the cooperating players twists and turns that required attention and strategy in order to win.  Players cannot be passive and some active moves turn out not be the best courses to take.  In other words, the game is unpredictable and challenging in an entertaining format.  My husband, children, and I enjoyed many hours of fun together.


     Overlook any disdain you may have developed over the last three years for the word “pandemic”, so you can give the board game, Pandemic, an honest evaluation.  I highly recommend that you consider it as a gift for someone or yourself over the upcoming holidays.  If you like games that require strategy and cooperation, you may enjoy it as much as my family and I did.
LINKS


https://www.leacock.com/pandemic 
https://boardgamingparent.com/pandemic-board-game-review-does-this-classic-still-have-it/#:~:text=If%20you%20have%20never%20played,the%20most%20successful%20cooperative%20games

https://www.boardgamebliss.com/products/pandemic-2013 

*** Topic for The Week of December 4, 2023 ***
Deadly Biothreat In Movies And Television

     If you read Topic # 12, I discussed my favorite authors, but also mentioned the movie I Am Legend.  People not only consume the subject ravenously in literature, but they also embrace it via visual arts, as well.  Television and movie scripts with deadly microorganisms abound, and I love them as much as the next person.  Once again, I placed them in order according to my personal favorites with the one I most enjoyed at the top with the others following.  However, they are worth your time not only in my opinion but by Rotten Tomatoes scores.  I hope you will enjoy one or many of them.


        I Am Legend (2007 movie)        4.5
        World War Z (2013 movie)        4.5
        Contagion (2011 movie)            4
        Zombieland (2009 movie)         4.5
        12 Monkeys (1996 movie)        4.5
         The Last of Us (2023 TV)         5 

   
     I will also give a nod to two television series that had episodes devoted to biothreats.  They are 24 and the original series of Star Trek.  In fact, 24 could almost rise to the list above because it had three seasons (Seasons 2, 3, and 7) focusing on a biothreat, and they are thrilling.  FYI: Star Trek had two episodes dealing with deadly organisms, Miri and The Mark of Gideon.  

 
        24 (2001 – 2009 TV)                  4.5
        Star Trek (1966 – 1967 TV)        4


     Of course, when Black Swan Impact becomes a film or television series, it will be at the top of my list, and, hopefully, earn several stars from Rotten Tomatoes.  

*** Topic for The Week of November 27, 2023 ***
Deadly Microorganisms In Fiction

     If you read Topic # 12, you have an idea of who are my go to authors. In this post, I will offer you a list of fictional novels with biothreat plots that I have read. I placed them in order according to my personal favorites with the one I most enjoyed at the top with the others following. However, they are worth your time not only in my opinion but by GoodReads scores. GoodReads rates on a scale of one to five stars where five is the best.


          Lethal Agent by Kyle Mills                                4.5 stars
          Blowback or Code of Conduct by Brad Thor    4.5 stars
          The Devil’s Hand by Jack Carr                         4.5 stars
          The Andromeda Strain by Michael Crichton    3.5 stars
          Executive Orders by Tom Clancy                     4 stars
          Contagion by Robin Cook                                3.5 stars
          The Stand by Stephen King                             4.5 stars

*** Topic for The Week of November 20, 2023 ***
Praise for Black Swan Impact

This blog mirrors the Black Swan Impact Newsletter. Today's topic reveals praise for the sci-fi political thriller. That praise has been showcased on this Website since its inception, so it will not be repeated here. You may find the praise on the bottom of the Home page or in the page titled: General.

*** Topic for The Week of November 13, 2023 ***
Instagram Announcement

     You can now follow the author of Black Swan Impact on Instagram (@helenhvettori). There you can find post video snippets or memes periodically. They will be related to the author or her upcoming sci-fi political thriller that is due to be released in March 2024.
   

*** Topic for The Week of November 6, 2023 ***
Key Questions For The Author of Black Swan Impact

     Paula Rizzo*, an Emmy award winning producer and media coach, urges authors to ascribe to the 10 question paradigm (https://paularizzo.com/10q/)**, so they can adequately convey information about themselves and their books in soundbite fashion.  The concept of grabbing and holding someone’s attention is as old as time, but the media have reduced us to soundbites.  Therefore, readers may become more intrigued by the sci-fi political thriller, Black Swan Impact, and the author, Helen Hyson Vettori, as they read short and pithy answers to those ten questions.
     Having answered some of the questions in previous posts, I will indicate that next to the question and where you can go to get that information.  If you refer to those articles, you will see they are approximately 400 word articles.  Today’s soundbites use 50 or fewer words. 
Ms. Rizzo’s ten questions are numbered and presented in bold.
 

     1.    Why did you write this book? (See Topic # 1, dated September 19, 2022.)
I wrote Black Swan Impact for two reasons.  First, it was a cathartic bridge for me to overlook the poor response to COVID-19.  Second, by applying my professional knowledge gained in federal and local governments, I wished to deliver a realistic novel that mirrored our headlines during March 2020.

 

     2.    What is this about? (See Topic # 1, dated September 19, 2022.)
In 2113, a pandemic crisis brings subject matter expert Dr. Syia Case to help the White House task force trying to save citizens of the United States.  At great personal cost, she and key members soon discover there is more than a virulent virus to fight. 

 

     3.    What is the bigger message you’re trying to get across? (See Topic # 4, dated October 10, 2022, Topic # 17, dated January 23, 2023, Topic # 20, dated February 13, 2023, and Topic # 28, dated April 10, 2023.)
The grand take away message I hope every reader understands clearly is that planning, preparing, and implementing the proper emergency response will mitigate or even negate threats like the virulent microorganism that outbreaks in Black Swan Impact.

 

4.    What does the title mean? (see Topic # 4, dated October 10, 2022)
The title of the sci-fi political thriller, Black Swan Impact, comes from joining the phrase black swan event, meaning an occurrence that no one could have foreseen or imagined, with a word that indicates the incident is life altering.
5.    Why did you start with this first line, “A Black Swan Event is a term used to describe a catastrophic incident that no one could have foreseen or imagined because of its unprecedented impact?” (see in Topic # 1, dated September 19, 2022)
     Although the term “black swan incident” or “black swan event” seems to be used more often, it is not a phrase that is ubiquitous.  Therefore, defining it immediately sets the stage for the reader to embrace the plot and provides insight into the significance of the title.

 

     6.    What has the reaction to this book been?
To date, the reaction to my sci-fi political thriller, Black Swan Impact, has been gratifying and impressive.  Subject matter experts from key positions in the federal government, active or retired, offered remarkable praise and gave it credence as a book that provides realism that mirrored our headlines during March 2020.    

 

7.    What are you working on next? (see Topic # 26, dated March 27, 2023)
Black Swan Impact is the first in a trilogy.  The second in the series is called Black Swan Shock and revolves around a massive earthquake.  Still in the conceptual stage, the third will be called Black Swan Terror.  As the title indicates, a massive terrorist attack will drive the plot.

 

8.    What advice to you have for people struggling with what your main character has gone through?
Readers identify with Syia Case humanly because we lived through COVID-19.  However, very few experienced trying to guide a response to a deadly disease while being hindered or threatened.  Nonetheless, my advice to anyone who struggles with difficult challenges, particularly caused by a domineering person, is to persevere.

 

9.    Is any of the story true? (see Topic # 11, dated November 28, 2022, and Topic # 20, dated February 13, 2023)
Some passages in Black Swan Impact emerged directly from my life.  A trampled character, resulting in his shapeless body, came directly from a rescue squad call.  As a paramedic, I could not help a patient who was hit by a semi, resulting in the complete destruction of her skeletal form.

 

10.    What was the hardest part for you to write? (see Topic # 1, dated September 19, 2022)
While Black Swan Impact almost wrote itself in a matter of weeks, I found it hard to create a world one hundred years in the future.  It took suggestions and prodding from several people for me to flesh out the science fiction one would expect in 2113.

*** Topic for The Week of October 30, 2023 ***
My Journey To Publication

     As many of you know from Topics # 1 and 2, I began writing Black Swan Impact as a result of a conversation with my sister concerning my exasperation with the feeble response to the COVID-19 pandemic.  Writing the sci-fi political thriller came easily and quickly.  The foundation emerged within a month, and I fleshed the story out over the course of the next few months.  Those early efforts were the most enjoyable and cathartic.  However, the journey to publication was arduous and frustrating.  I intend to map out the process for you, so that you may consider the timeline and work required to publish a book that you may have written or wish to write.   
     You may not believe that I reached out to more than 150 literary agents over the course of 10 months.  The reason for that laborious campaign relates to the fact that, with few exceptions, having representation by a literary agent is the greatest avenue for authors to obtain a book deal.  Literary agents have networks of editors in publishing houses and can reach out to them where authors cannot.  Literary agents negotiate deals with knowledge and skill whereas an author may not have the savvy or expertise to do so.  Representation also gives an author more credibility in the field.
     Initially, an agent called me within the first month of my drive to garner representation.  She was enthusiastic.  Unfortunately, she found that the pandemic stymied her too much, so she decided to retire.  Nearly nine months later another agent called me.  She, too, was excited and challenged me to be ready for fast-paced and colossal pushes because she expected my manuscript to fly quickly.  Over the course of a year, our partnership fractured, so I let her go, finding myself back at the start.  
     My disappointment began to ease as the holidays approached.  I suspended my push after sending only two queries to publishing houses that permitted authors to contact them directly.  Then, I concentrated on family and friends, setting aside my novel.  To my great surprise, Austin Macauley Publishers emailed me with an offer for a contract just prior to Christmas Day.  What a gift!  I was elated yet apprehensive.  Not having a literary agent, I looked over the contract details line by line repeatedly and decided to sign after the holidays ended.  The contact guaranteed that Black Swan Impact would be on bookshelves, available Online either as a physical book or eBook, and as an audiobook in March of 2024, which would be over one year later.
     Your experiences could be different if you wish to embark on a journey to publish a book.  However, I believe mine was typical.  Writing a polished 120,000 word novel with a tight arc takes nine months to years, depending on the time you can spend on writing each day.  Securing an agent may take a few weeks to an entire year of concentrated endeavors.  Receiving a contract for publication may take weeks to many, many months.  Finally, your book launch likely will take another year after that.  Prepare yourself for a minimum of three years to achieve your goal.  Good luck!

*** Topic for The Week of October 23, 2023 ***
A Sea Captain's Story

     Recently, my husband and I sailed on a cruise ship. One afternoon the senior crew members held a Q&A forum. Naturally, the captain was present and someone asked him to recount the most extraordinary situation with which he contended. His answer surprised me because it resulted from COVID-19, and he said the experience was monumental in his career. His account was historical because no modern-day* captain had managed such extraordinary circumstances.

     By late February 2020, managers from the cruise line understood COVID-19 presented a grave problem, so they cancelled all cruises indefinitely. Guests were instructed not to come to any ship until further notice. This left the captain and crew without purpose in Singapore and far away from home. However, they were instructed to sail west in March.

     Ports closed all over the world. At first that did not present an issue. The captain knew the ship had ample food and water because they had just stocked up in preparation for a full complement of guests. They also could desalinate water.

    Nonetheless, in relatively short order, fuel became a concern. The captain determined that they would have to creep at a speed of one knot per hour, hoping that would allow them to have enough reserves to berth in some distant port. Country after country denied them entry, so the ship meandered for three months.

     As time passed, keeping morale up among the crew became increasingly difficult. The captain discovered one huge booster was to allow them to enjoy sleeping in guest suites. Although he did not say it, I also expect he gave the crew access to alcohol in addition to the decadent food.

     Finally, in May, a port in the Netherlands opened for them. That solved the fuel issue and lifted the crew’s spirits greatly, but there were more complications ashore. Getting the crew from that city to their homes worldwide became the new logistical nightmare, yet they persevered. All finally ended as well as it could have during that historical event.

     Unprecedented, the captain explained that the decisions he made on a daily basis broke ground. His implemented actions became a model for the company. He literally wrote the book on strategies and procedures to consider in such a crisis. I truly appreciated his response to the Q&A and felt because of its historical value it needed to be documented outside of his company. As George Soper, the person who in 1907 traced the source of an outbreak of typhoid fever to Typhoid Mary in New York city, said during the Spanish flu, “To rightly measure a difficulty is often the first step toward overcoming it.**”

 

* I added “modern-day” because his story could be likened to that of the seafarers turned away from or quarantined at ports during the Bubonic plague. (See Topic # 30 dated April 17, 2023.) Nonetheless, that should not take away from this present day captain’s historic, firsthand account.

** Soper GA. The lessons of the pandemic. Science. 1919; 49:501–6. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]

*** Topic for the Week of October 16, 2023 ***
Reason Last Week’s Window Example Is My Favorite

As a follow on to last week, I will reveal why the window to Chapter 16 for my sci-fi political thriller Black Swan Impact is my favorite. 

***

     While I like all Black Swan Impact windows, the one that begins Chapter 16 is my favorite for several reasons.  Those reasons are:

  • It is succinct.

  • It reveals a great deal about the illicit drug problem without getting into the weeds.  We understand mules smuggle Pamcepithal into Florida via marine means, and they carry disease unwittingly.

  • Pamcepithal is a drug that appears throughout Black Swan Impact with varying degrees of importance, making it essential for the story line.

  • The mule is colorful.  He is demanding and a bully, but we can laugh at his undesirable personality.  By kicking his inoperable boat, we extrapolate comedic irony.  He then can problem solve quickly when it comes to greed but overlooks his own wellbeing and ultimately that of others.  We can empathize with the mule because he is naïve and/or ignorant.

  • Last, the introduction of the threat of sharks comes quickly and almost as softly as sharks might appear in the darkness of night.  With only four words, “Nearby sharks smelled it,” the reader’s imagination fills in the rest, making the arc of the window even more intriguing.

***

*** Topic for The Week of October 9, 2023 ***
My Favorite Black Swan Impact “Window”

We revisited the concept of Black Swan Impact “windows” last week.  This week, I will share with you my favorite window.  It begins Chapter 16.  

***

     “’Dammit, I told you already.  The boat’s shit!  I need help to get to Miami.  If you are smart enough to get me through the Coast Guard blockade, you should be able to understand that I need you to figure out how to get me and the stuff to land … Hello? … Hello?!  Crap!’ the man threw his ESHICON down hard on the deck of the boat and then hacked until his lungs hurt.

     “Catching his breath, he wheezed, ‘I’m only a half hour away.’  He kicked the side of the vessel, yelling, ‘Why couldn’t you make it you piece of shit?!’

      “Smoke began to billow from below deck.  ‘Dammit!’ screamed the stranded smuggler adrift in the dark night.  ‘Dammit!’ he yelled again then coughed hard. 

     “Recovering from his hacking, he threw his head back, ‘Ha!  I can buy twenty better boats if I want to.’  He glanced at the haul in a waterproof container by his feet.   This score will set me up but good, he thought to himself.  ‘And see if I give you your full cut you asshole!’ he yelled as if his partner on shore could hear.

     “He crossed over to a bench seat and lifted the padded top.  ‘Do you really need this life vest?’ he asked himself as he pulled it out of the hold.  Turning it about, he decided it might be wise, and he put it on.  Then he grabbed the box filled with contraband and tossed it over the side, wheezing as he did so.  Wondering if he had synched the life vest too tight, he loosened it.  It didn’t really help him to catch his breath better, but he lowered himself into the water without giving the trouble more thought.

“’Come to Daddy,’ he chortled between coughs as he swam to the container filled with Pamcepithal.  ‘Why am I so tired?’  Swimming with every ounce of energy, he wrapped his arms around the bobbing box gratefully.  ‘Thank God,’ he said as he panted hard.  Then, his chest spasmed, and his nose gushed blood. 

     “Nearby sharks smelled it.”

*** Topic for The Week of October 2, 2023 ***
Windows Revisited

     Some of you may remember that the subject of Black Swan Impact “windows” appeared in this blog as a topic on October 17, 2022.  Since that post appeared months ago, we have new subscribers, and the release of Chapter One occurred last week; it makes sense to revisit the feature.  Each chapter of my sci-fi political thriller begins with a window.  Some of the windows relate directly to their given chapters while others present backstories.  In short, Black Swan Impact windows enhance reading experiences.
     I chose the name window because the architectural feature usually is a transparent opening that provides views to that which otherwise would be obstructed or unobservable.  You may wish to look back at the October 17, 2022, post to see the examples from Chapters 12 and 35 along with my commentaries.  You may also wish to review the windows for Chapters 1 and 2.  They may be found in the Excerpt section of this Website.  Whether you choose to read the October 22, 2022, entry, read the sneak peeks with the associated windows, or wait for the release of Back Swan Impact to enjoy all of the windows as they unfold; you can take away that Black Swan Impact windows offer readers more insights.

*** Topic for The Week of September 25, 2023 ***
Third Sneak Peek

The third and final sneak peek for the upcoming sci-fi political thriller, Black Swan Impact, may be found in the Excerpt section of this site. Click on the button below to access it and the previous two sneak peeks.

*** Topic for The Week of September 18, 2023 ***
Right, Left, Or Both Arms?

     The COVID-19 vaccine came to us in record time.  Whether you are an advocate of it or not, this article may provide an interesting perspective regarding the efficacy concerning its administration for those who opted to take it.  Scientists have discovered that it seems to matter whether subjects receive the multiple dose vaccine in one or alternating arms, and this could translate into how other vaccines are administered in the future.

     On August 17, 2023, in a USA Today article, Adrianna Rodriguez began by stating, “When you roll up your sleeve to get routine vaccinations, do you prefer a jab in your right or left arm? New data suggests the choice you make matters.*"  The study performed in Germany focused on administering the COVID-19 vaccine to 300 participants.  The results showed that those who received both doses in the same arm had 24% more killer T-cells or cytotoxic T-cells (immune response cells) than those who received the initial dose in one arm and the second dose in the other arm.

     The difference in greater production of killer T-cells in those who received both doses in one arm may be due to the same lymph node going into action each time.  Could it be that the same lymph node has the ability to produce the killer T-cells exponentially better because of a “memory” factor?  Perhaps a baseline previously set allows more efficient killer T-cell production.

    The results of the study may be intriguing, but we must understand that they are early and limited findings.  Moreover, while the killer T-cell count differed quite markedly, the spiked protein antibody counts did not.  Nonetheless, there may be significant benefits for administering multiple dose vaccines of any type on only one arm.  Future research will define that.  Until then, you and your healthcare provider may consider whether you should receive multiple dose injections in one arm or both.

 

* https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2023/08/17/arm-for-vaccine-shots-matter/70604228007/

*** Topic for The Week of September 11, 2023 ***
Earth’s Country Composition In 2113

     In the Prologue to Black Swan Impact, readers understand the world has changed due to World War III and the need to recover from it.  However, it is not until Chapter 3 that readers discover the explanation for the composition of countries in the future.  Because World War III inflicted great strife and suffering upon citizens and countries, people agree at its end that greater unification and determination would make them better able to recover and achieve a renaissance.  Below are three paragraphs from Chapter 3.  
     “The first phase toward recovery surprised many because individual nations joined together to form bigger and stronger powers.  Japan, South Korea, and several Asian cultures formed the League of Asian Pacific Nations.  The continents of Africa and South America joined their many countries into one for each landmass.  African states transitioned to The African National Union, and South American countries formed the South American Allied States. Central American nations joined with Mexico to form Mexicentra.  Australia and several Pacific Island countries formed The Unified Ausislands, and several nations in the Middle East chose to bond together as the Mideast Consortium.  The United States, the European Union, Canada, India, and the Russian Federation remained much the same.  The US subsequently added four additional states, and the Russian Federation annexed some former independent countries; however, in all, the unions synergized efforts to rebuild after the major global conflict.
     “While forming new governments, they also concentrated on farming.  The massive subsistence effort translated into food supplies increasing worldwide.  Then modern infrastructure replaced the eyesores of ruins.  Education became more valued and encouraged, and people embraced their improving lives.  Naturally, setbacks did occur, particularly where economies were concerned.  Yet overall optimism kept everyone moving forward.  They regained standards known before WWIII and then pushed beyond.  
     “As the capitulators, China and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, nevermore referred to as North Korea, had much to rebuild in the post-World War III era, but they, too, emerged from collapse over the years. …” 
    

*** Topic for the Week of September 4, 2023 ***
More Trivia To Pursue

1.    The CIA World Factbook Online lists 227 countries in the world.  At what position does the United States fall when ranking them according to Life Expectancy?
a.    7th
b.    22nd 
c.    48th 
d.    94th 


2.    What country does the CIA World Factbook list as the first when ranking Life Expectancy?
a.    Iceland
b.    Japan
c.    Monaco
d.    Singapore


3.    According to the CDC by order of magnitude, what were the four leading causes of deaths in the United States during 2022?
a.    Cancer, Heart Disease, COVID-19, Unintentional Injury
b.    Unintended Injury, Heart Disease, Cancer, COVID-19
c.    Cancer, Heart Disease, Unintended Injury, COVID-19
d.    Heart Disease, COVID-19, Cancer, Unintended Injury
4.    The American Heart Association estimates that if CPR is performed early enough, ______ lives can be saved annually.
a.    100,000 to 200,000
b.    50,000 to 100,000
c.    25,000 to 30,000
d.    10,000 to 25,000


5.    A state health department can impose quarantine or isolation without a court order.
a.    True
b.    False


6.    What is the accepted range for the number of people who died in the 1918 – 1919 Influenza pandemic?
a.    10 – 20 million people
b.    20 – 60 million people
c.    40 – 80 million people
d.    50 – 100 million people


7.    Pandemics are seasonal, meaning they occur only during specific months of the year.
a.    True
b.    False


8.    What disease(s) comprise heart disease?
a.    Coronary artery disease
b.    Arrhythmia
c.    Cerebrovascular disease
d.    All of the above


***


ANSWERS
1.    c. 48th 
2.    c. Monaco
3.    c. Cancer, Heart Disease, Unintentional Injury, COVID-19
4.    a. 100,000 to 200,000
5.    a. True
6.    d. 50 – 100 million people
7.    b. False 
8.    d. All of the above
***
On September 11th, we will explore only one question.
***

*** Topic For The Week of August 28, 2023 ***
Fun with Facts AKA Sheldon-like Trivia

  1. What is a librocubicularist?

    1. Someone who escapes into a book

    2. Someone who reads in bed

    3. Someone who paints books in the cubist style

  2. What is the derivation of the word “library”?

    1. The Latin word “libra”

    2. The Latin word “libara”

    3. The Latin word “liber”

  3. What is the name of the world’s oldest, continuously operated library?

    1. Al-Qarawiyyin Library in Fez, Morocco

    2. Saint Catherine’s library in Saini, Egypt

    3. Elba Library, near Mardikh, Syria

  4. How long has the oldest continuous library operated in the US?

    1. 247 years

    2. 256 years

    3. 280 years

  5. What is “bibliophobia”?

    1. An obsessive book collector

    2. A fear of libraries

    3. A fear of books or reading

  6. What is a “bibliophile”?

    1. A person who collects or loves books

    2. Someone who hoards books

    3. Someone who like to watch others read

  7. What is a “lectiophile”?

    1. Someone who has read from a very early age

    2. Someone who likes to watch others read

    3. Someone who loves to read

  8. What is the oldest, continuously operating publisher?

    1. Cambridge University Press

    2. Carthage Consortium

    3. The Gutenberg Press

Answers:

  1. b. Someone who reads in bed

  2. c. The Latin word “liber”, meaning book

  3. b. St. Catherine’s library in Saini, Egypt built in 548-565 AD (Al Qarawiyyin built in 859 AD, Elba library was begun in 2500 BC, but is no longer operational)

  4. c. 280 years

  5. c. A fear of books or reading

  6. a. A person who collects or loves books

  7. c. Someone who loves to read

  8. a. Cambridge University Press (established in 1534 by a royal charter made by King Henry VIII)

*** Topic For The Week of August 21, 2023 ***

The post for this week is a video on how to don and doff an N95 respirator facemask.  Click on the Video button on the left to access it.

*** The Week of August 14, 2023 ***
Facemasks And Respirators

     By the 1920s, germs were understood by medical professionals, making facemasks ubiquitous safeguards in that field.  To be fair, physicians and others used masks before then, albeit inconsistently.  For example, during the Black Plague, some physicians donned beak-like masks filed with herbs to fend off the bad miasma around their patients, yet the efficacy of those masks likely was extremely poor.  Today, facemasks are proven to be effective personal protective equipment (PPE), so you may consider stockpiling and using them whenever you feel the need.
     My personal choice is called an N-95 respirator.  When fitted properly N-95s masks filter out 95% of particulates in the air, including viruses and bacteria.  They can be worn up to 16 hours (consecutively or cumulatively) before you must discard them.  Regardless of the hours worn they cannot be used when wet or dirty.  Further, they cannot be used in an environment that has gases, vapors, and oil mists, or asbestos.
     I recommend that you don N-95 respirators and not surgical masks when you wish to protect yourself from airborne diseases.  That’s because surgical masks do not filter the air you breathe.  They contain droplets expelled from your mouth or nose, protecting others.  Conversely, N-95s provide a barrier between you and airborne particulates, including viruses and bacteria.  
     To be most effective, N-95s should be fit tested each year to verify a proper seal.  That is unrealistic unless you have a job where that procedure is offered to you annually.  Since retirement, I have not been fit tested and must accept the “this is better than nothing” approach when donning facemasks today.  However, I feel comfortable with that because I know how to don, doff, care for, and monitor the lifespans of my facemasks.
     The bottom line is surf the Web to find what facemask might be best for you.  There are many styles, shapes, and sizes.  Therefore, I recommend that you consider only
National Institute of Safety & Health (NIOSH) approved brands.

*** Topic for The Week of August 7, 2023 ***
Air Purifiers

     In Topic # 20’s article, you saw a list of ten actions you may consider so that you may reduce your risk of contracting a disease like COVID or influenza.  Most of the interventions listed would cost you little or nothing.  On the other hand, buying and installing a filtration/ventilation machine/system in your home and/or office could be expensive.  A less costly alternative could be to build one.  However, understand it’s likely that do-it-yourself (DIY) air purifiers might not scrub harmful particulates as well as those designed and manufactured professionally.  Further, do not believe that having a professional or DYI air purifier is the panacea for protecting yourself against germs.  An air purifier is one in a host of measures you might use to help protect yourself from diseases*.
     If you opt to purchase a standalone (room) air purifier or a system for an entire home or office, do your homework first.  Compare company products not just for price, but efficacy.  Consider many questions like: 
•    Is the product or system backed by a warrantee and guarantee?  
•    What particulates should be scrubbed from the air?  (Ensure germs would be filtered out.)
•    How much air is circulated hourly?    
•    How often must you replace the filter(s) and at what cost?  
•    How often must you clean the system or machine?
     If you opt to build a DYI air purifier, remember it would be for areas, not an entire home or office.  Then research the many DYI air purifiers online.  Personally, I think some are cleaver in design and others are less so.  Some are quite inexpensive to build while others can add up at the register.  Still, they are cheaper than professional choices.  
     The bottom line is use due diligence.  Get smart on air purifiers.  Understand what goal you intend to achieve by using either standalone models (professional or DIY) or home/office systems.


* Let me clearly state that I do not have a professional air filtration system (installed or standalone) or one that I have made.  I am not endorsing any products manufactured professionally or one that is DYI.  Washing your hands is the most effective strategy for preventing illness and, when combined with other measures, you can achieve extraordinary defenses.  An air purifier is one protective measure you may wish to embrace.
***

*** Topic For The Week Of July 31, 2023 ***
The 50% Solution

     On March 23, 2022, the White House released, “Let’s Clear The Air On COVID”*.  Simply by opening windows or operating fans, we can reduce airborne disease transmission risk by 50 percent.  To prove that to your children and yourself, you can use an experiment found on the Public Broadcasting System, NOVA, WGBH Educational Foundation Website: https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/teachers/activities/2217_building_01.html, modifying it for our purposes.  
     Use two jars instead of one, preparing both as instructed.  Then place one of the jars in a frequently used room with little or no cross ventilation and the other in an often used space with robust ventilation**.  Then compare the quantity particles present on each jar at the end of the timeframe.  Particles will be visible to the naked eye in this experiment whereas viruses and bacteria would not be but remember this is a representative experiment.  The jar in the space with good circulation of air should have fewer particles than that on the jar stored in a space with still air.
     You may be disturbed to see the number of particles that show up on the jars.  That in turn may inspire you to spend more time outdoors, opening windows to your home or office, and turning on a fan in enclosed environments more often.  Such actions will provide you with environments less likely to infect you with germs.

 
* https://www.whitehouse.gov/ostp/news-updates/2022/03/23/lets-clear-the-air-on-covid/


** It is important to use rooms that have a lot of activity by people and any pets.  Dust and dander will comprise most of the particles that collect on the bottles.
 

*** Topic For The Week Of July 24, 2023 ***
The Black Swan Impact Virulent Chimera

     You may have read Chapter 2 of Black Swan Impact when it appeared as the first post for this site or on this Black Swan Impact Website.  Having been ten months ago, you may have forgotten it, or you may not have known about the posting until now.  Please go to the first post to read the entire chapter.  However, focus now on the passage where Dr. Syia Case discovers the emergence of a chimera at a meeting with government officials responsible for protecting the people attending a political convention and its location.
     First you must know what a chimera is.  Wikipedia offers a definition as, “A genetic chimerism or chimera (/kaɪˈmɪərə, kə-/ ky-MEER-ə, kə-) is a single organism composed of cells with more than one distinct genotype.*”  In the case of our focused excerpt, the chimera is a cross between a virus and a bacterium.  Being two separate genotypes or two distinct organisms, the offspring of a bacterium and virus would be highly improbable naturally occurring organism and potentially extremely threatening to humans.  


BEGIN FOCUSED PASSAGE FROM CHAPTER 2 OF BLACK SWAN IMPACT


     … With a tone of disbelief, Syia answered, “This is a hybrid virus and bacterium.  A Chimera.  It should only be hypothetical.  I haven’t any idea who might have been successful in creating this potentially dangerous pathogen; but there is no doubt that it is manmade, and it likely is a very substantial threat.”
     “What?!” gasped the Federal Protective Service Commander.  “That’s a real sucker punch!”  
     “I can’t even begin to believe it,” stated another.  “Important lives, including a presidential hopeful, are in immediate danger!”  
     Bartlett leaned forward with her arms folded on the table.  Staring intently, she said, “Spell out what you mean by ‘substantial threat’.”
     “At the very least there is a likelihood that everyone who has been in the convention center will become sick.  We likely will not be able to find treatments or cures fast enough, so I expect that they … we … will succumb to it.  The medical community has never seen such an organism, so we would work as if we were blindfolded and with one arm tied.  We’ll have to learn everything about it as we go.  It’ll be trial and error to treat patients or prevent infections.”
     The Special Agent quipped, “In other words, it would be like building a rocket as it blasts off.”
     “That is a fair analogy.  However, that’s not all.  There is a worst-case scenario.”
     Bartlett frowned and leaned toward the expert.  “Go on.”
     “Worst case boils down to how transmissible this pathogen might be.  Can those exposed in the convention center pass it to people outside of that location?  If so, how contagious is it?  Will those who are infected pass the disease to one person or to 10?  
     “Then to compound the issue we must find out how virulent this Chimera is.  Will people become mildly ill, or severely ill?  If there is a high rate of transmission and extreme morbidity, a lot of people will die.  Further, it has the potential to create a devastating endemic or even a pandemic.” …


END OF FOCUSED PASSAGE


     Readers learn that the threatening chimera is only a nightmare when Dr. Syia Case awakens.  While she finds comfort in waking, she cannot rid herself of the foreboding that her dream is a harbinger of what’s to come.  Indeed, Syia sees aspects of her dreaded premonition come true and ultimately finds herself in peril in the sci-fi political thriller Black Swan Impact.


* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chimera_(genetics)

*** Topic For The Week of July 17, 2023 ***
Topic # 42

    Some of you may remember in the early 2000s, when Avian influenza (bird flu) caused great concern in scientific, medical, and commerce communities.  Businesses like Kentucky Fried Chicken planned and prepared vigorously for a looming destructive force to their product, and governments spent countless hours readying for a human pandemic caused by the virus spilling over from birds.  However, when the 2009 H1N1 pandemic ended in 2010, those worries subsided until recently.  Once again bird flu has been on the rise, and on July 12, 2023, the World Health Organization (WHO) warned that a surge in outbreaks of Avian influenza in certain mammals might allow the virus to jump into the human population.  If that were to happen, we could experience another pandemic on top of the current COVID-19 pandemic, making preparing for that scenario prudent.


   Europe has been gripped by a historic outbreak of bird flu since late 2021.  Indeed, their worst-ever outbreak seems endless.  Additionally, North and South America have also experienced periodic, severe outbreaks, and now Avian flu has been discovered in some mammals.  According to a Phys.org article from July 13, 2023, “Outbreaks have been reported in 26 species, including farmed mink in Spain and sealions in Chile.  [It] was recently detected in cats in Poland*”.  The reason that is concerning is that those “mixing vessels” may provide the conduit for the virus to mutate into one that can infect humans easily.
   Refer to the pandemic phases and periods video posted on this Substack site on May 29, 2023.  There are six phases with two periods that comprise a pandemic cycle.  When discussing the current bird flu outbreak, Phase 1 applies because there are no human infections caused by the Avian flu circulating among animals.  However, the WHO is concerned that Phase 2 could be forthcoming, cascading to subsequent phases.

 
   Perhaps the WHO warning will only be academic because the current Avian influenza outbreak could burn itself out before crossing over to humans.  A second scenario could be that a human pandemic does arise, but with relatively mild consequences like those of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic.  However, a third possibility is that another highly contagious and virulent pandemic may occur even before COVID-19 ends.  Therefore, it is sensible to plan and prepare like those Kentucky Fried Chicken and emergency management personnel did two decades ago.  Even individuals can benefit from preventive and protective actions whether another pandemic emerges or not.


* https://phys.org/news/2023-07-bird-flu-humans-easily.html#:~:text=The%20World%20Health%20Organization%20warned,have%20also%20experienced%20severe%20outbreaks  (The cited article is one of many reports made about this topic.  Other media sources include Barron’s, The Economic Times, and Reuters.)
   
***

*** Topic for The Week of July 10, 2023 ***
SARS CoV-2 Meets MERS CoV

     A report from an April 3, 2023, Daily Beast article stated that scientists in China have sounded the alarm over the potential for a catastrophic coronavirus combination*.  Fear pitching is a proven ploy to obtain funding.  However, we cannot be jaded and dismiss the scare tactic outright because the next pandemic may very well be the black swan event as seen in my sci-fi political thriller Black Swan Impact.  By acknowledging and studying potential biological threats, we can plan and prepare for them, mitigating their morbidity and mortality.  Therefore, we should examine the situation where two coronavirus reassortments occur.  In this case, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, Coronavirus 2 (SARS CoV-2) combines with Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS CoV), resulting in a coronavirus evolutionary offspring that is “super lethal” to humans.
     Currently, SARS CoV-2 is highly contagious but not as deadly as we once dreaded.  In 2020, its mortality rate equaled 2.3%.  The U.S. mortality rate currently remains less than half that at 1.1%**.  While 1.1% is high, we have become accustomed to the number of deaths caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.  Also at this time, MERS kills with high lethality where about 35% of those who contract it die.  The good news is that it has low transmissibility.  Outside of healthcare settings, there have been no sustained human-to-human transmissions.  But what if the two coronaviruses had the opportunity to combine?  Would a highly transmissible and extremely virulent virus appear in our world just like the threatening chimera in Syia’s dream in Chapter Two of Black Swan Impact?
     The exercise in creating scenarios like the one outlined in the Daily Beast article allows researchers to seek ways to either prevent or mitigate identified threats.  We should welcome that tactic and face issues rather than panic or turn a blind eye.  By acknowledging and studying potential biological hazards, subject matter experts can plan and prepare for them, mitigating the impact of ominous microorganisms.

 

* https://www.thedailybeast.com/scientists-fear-catastrophic-covid-combination-with-mers-virus#:~:text=Scientists%20Fear%20'Catastrophic'%20COVID%20Combination%20With%20Another%20Virus&text=Scientists%20are%20calling%20for%20a,the%20super%2Dlethal%20MERS%20virus

** Data obtained from Johns Hopkins University and Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality)

*** Topic For The Weeks
June 12 - July 3, 2023 ***

Author Readings
Click on the button below to go to the site with the podcasts.

*** Topic For The Week Of June 5, 2023 ***
Artificial Intelligence In Publishing

     Discussions about and applications of artificial intelligence (AI) seem to pop up regularly.  In the Berkshire-Hathaway Annual Meeting on May 6, 2023, Warren Buffett mentioned it.  He said, “… [W]hen [AI] can do all kinds of things, I get a little bit worried.  Because I know we won’t be able to uninvent it.”  It’s not yet time for John O’Connor to send the T-1000 terminator to destroy Skynet, but it is time to consider how artificial intelligence will change our world.  Surely, there will be positive functions, but there may be negative ones, too.  Feasibly, AI may change the publishing in unfortunate ways.
     If you enjoy fiction, you likely prefer books that offer intrigue and twists delivered in clever and well-crafted prose.  Non-fiction, too, must be written smartly and captivatingly.  Humans can create such works, but can artificial intelligence?  The answer is: Maybe.  Books written by AI have been published already even though they have been formulaic or worse yet meaningless storylines frothed with grammatical errors*.  But will AI learn how to compose a book that could earn New York Times Bestseller status?  Another and more important question is: Should AI be unleashed to replace human authors?
     What will happen to the quality and scope of publications if artificial intelligence can churn them out?  Traditional publishing houses already control the industry by promoting their tried and true moneymakers and marginalizing fledgling authors.  But publishers might gravitate toward AI writers because doing so will increase profits by not having to pay human authors.  Predictably people in the literary profession will become superfluous and creativity in literature may become a lost art.  
     Further, what will become of actors who bring audiobooks to life?  You may be surprised to learn that AI-narrated books presently exist.  Nonetheless, you may wonder if an automated voice can deliver pleasing performances.  The answer is to a large extent: It can.  Voices of actors from former projects can be synthesized by computer programs to deliver fairly expressive readings of something new without additional interactions by those actors**.
     Ultimately, some of you may welcome applications of artificial intelligence and others of you may recoil at them.  
Regardless of your convictions, AI is here to stay.  To paraphrase Warren Buffett, we can’t uninvent it.  This should prompt us all to consider the consequences artificial intelligence may cause in all areas of our lives, including in the world of publishing.

*** Topic for The Week of May 29, 2023 ***
Video

*** Topic for The Week of May 22, 2023 ***
End of The Public Health Emergency

     On May 11, 2023, the Biden Administration declared an end to the Public Health Emergency (PHE) for COVID-19.  Some of you welcomed that with great fanfare, others of gave it no thought, while still others felt emotions somewhere in between.  The truth is we can embrace the declaration as a milestone but must also understand that it does not mark the end of our current pandemic.  Ending the PHE boils down to a management decision that signals the impact of COVID-19 has significantly decreased such that emergency response efforts implemented over the past couple of years will no longer be available or be scaled back.
     Three major bullet points are:

  • Data reporting and surveillance for SARS CoV-2 will change.

  • Free antigen tests will be a thing of the past for the most part.  The Federal government and insurance companies no longer have the obligation to provide them.  However, some states and Medicaid recipients can still get the home test kits without charge for varying timeframes.

  • Funding for certain Medicare and Medicaid waivers and flexibilities either no longer exist or will cease in six months*. 

     As you may glean from the bullet points, the action reduces monetary and laborious obligations for governments and private industries.  Further expect that more emergency efforts, including funding, will terminate or subside as the COVID-19 morbidity and mortality rates continue to fall, and we transition to a state of normalcy.  However, one should remember that even though the PHE ended, we are not yet finished with the pandemic.  
     Do not be disheartened.  Although no one can predict when our current pandemic will conclude, it likely will be sooner rather than later.  The end of the Public Health Emergency clearly indicates that COVID-19 has progressed to a later stage in the pandemic cycle, which is a welcome sign.
* https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2023/05/09/fact-sheet-end-of-the-covid-19-public-health-emergency.html#:~:text=Based%20on%20current%20COVID%2D19,day%20on%20May%2011%2C%202023 
***

 

*** Topic for The Week of May 15, 2023 ***
Cocktails-To-Go, mRNA, and Telework 

     Cocktails-To-Go, mRNA, and working remotely may be three welcomed gifts from the COVID-19 pandemic.  Okay, so none of those were invented in 2020.  I literally bought a pina colada at a drive through bar in the 1970s, and I worked remotely on an irregular basis before I retired.  Further, mRNA research began in about five decades ago.  However, all three became very widely used and innovated during the COVID-19 pandemic, making them fixtures now prominent in our lives today.
     When considering cocktails-to-go, please think wider.  Al fresco dining has expanded to “streeteries”, making space on former pedestrian only sidewalks and busy roads available to slow down over a meal.  In fact, some roads are permanently closed from motor vehicles.  Additionally, delivery services can satisfy virtually any appetite away from crowds, allowing you to enjoy foods that may not have been available because that restaurant was booked solid every time you wanted to go.  And, yes, you can order adult beverages to come to you.  Finally, let us not forget the boom in Online ordering and delivery of almost anything else.

     The expectation that a new vaccine could be developed in less than one year was unheard of prior to the outbreak of SARS COVID-2.  However, protecting us from grave illness was a major concern, and a viable vaccine topped the list to do so.  The COVID-19 vaccine came to us in record time and with remarkable efficacy.  Those very important elements in the Operation Warp Speed serum would never have been possible without the mRNA research done before 2020.

     Certainly, teleworking did not suddenly appear in 2020.  However, it became a dependable avenue to continue all forms of office operations without exposing many in the workforce to disease.  Business, including telemed, could carry on to a great extent.  Of course, some jobs like ICU nursing or construction could not be conducted over the Internet.  Nonetheless, many could comply with stay at home orders and still maintain business.

     The traditional workplace model is now a thing of the past because there are more proven options.  New vaccines have impacted us with greater effectiveness and will continue to do so as scientific breakthroughs lead to new preventions and treatments.  Finally, let’s not forget the ease of ordering and receiving many of our desires.  Truly, the COVID-19 pandemic shocked and harmed us, but it also provided the opportunity for us to grow and improve upon our existence henceforth.

*** Topic for The Week of May 8, 2023 ***
A Surprising Downstream Impact of The Great Pestilence

     If you have or someone you know has an autoimmune disease, you or they are not alone.  Currently, one in 15 Americans live with one or more maladies like Celiac disease, Hashimoto’s thyroiditis, Lupus, Rheumatoid arthritis, Type 1 diabetes, and Ulcerative colitis.  Further, autoimmune disease affects women disproportionately at approximately 75% of sufferers and autoimmunity is increasing across all populations.  With such statistics, researchers set out to discover why.  Empirical data points to the Black Death as the culprit (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05349-x).

     Autoimmunity is a condition in which the body's immune system mistakes its own healthy tissues as foreign and attacks them, so it may seem illogical that it appears to be a result of the devastating plague where up to 50% of the population died.  Nevertheless, scientists found that the evolution of dysfunctional immune genes can be associated with it.  Of all the genes passed down by those Great Pestilence survivors, the inauspicious genes associated with autoimmunity was prevalent.  Those who did succumb to the bubonic plague did not have such genes.  Had they survived, offspring likely would have carried on the strong immune genes, and autoimmunity may have faded away.

     This news might be explained by recalling the Spanish flu.  (See Topics # topics # 1, 4, 17, 18, and particularly 20.)  Those with robust immune systems died quickly because their bodies surged with great ferocity to fight the virus.  Many with a sluggish immune responses avoided drowning in the cytokine storm within their lungs.  Ironically, they survived. 

     Feasibly the same can be found in the case of the bubonic plague survivors from the Dark Ages.  Those with weak immune systems, to include autoimmunity, survived because their poor body response did not overwhelm them as they ailed.  Those with strong immune systems died as their bodies fought hard to overcome the disease.  Research will continue to study the discovery and, as they do so, may also find a way to combat autoimmune inflictions. 

***

I invite you to learn more about autoimmune diseases.  You may help yourself or others to diagnose issues and receive treatments.  The first step to educating yourself could be to take the eight question quiz at: https://healthlibrary.brighamandwomens.org/library/wellness/Fitness/40,AutoimmuneDiseaseChrQuiz.

***

*** Topic for the week of May 1, 2023 ***
Breaking News: Sudan’s Conflict And Biohazards

     On Tuesday, April 25, 2023, The World Health Organization (WHO) warned there is a "high risk of biological hazard" in Sudan as a result of the current war.  You may ask, “Why should those living outside of the African nation be concerned about the warning?”  The answer is that disease knows no borders.  An outbreak of a virulent and highly transmissible microorganism in Sudan could unleash another pandemic just as COVID-19 wanes.
     The WHO made the statement because the National Public Health Laboratory in Sudan’s capital, Khartoum, was captured, and it houses multiple biological and chemical materials.  Reports state that lab personnel no longer have access to the facility due to a militant faction occupying it.  Further, the seized lab is located in a densely populated area and within easy access to an international airport.  Therefore, the potential for widespread transmission of a deadly disease cannot be ignored. 
    Unchecked we could face a scenario that could inflict suffering well beyond Sudan.  If a pathogen is used as a weapon or infects someone accidentally, a worldwide catastrophic event could develop just as a microorganism challenges humanity in my sci-fi political thriller Black Swan Impact.  Therefore, medical and scientific experts should lookout for uncommon illnesses appearing in the local population.     
     Then, if a discovery that one (or more) deadly and easily transmissible biological hazards stored in the besieged lab infects victims, containing the outbreak in war torn Sudan would be necessary.  Afflicted would need to be isolated and their contacts quarantined.  (See Topic # 29 for the definitions of the terms.)  Unfortunately, that would add to their miseries.  Nonetheless, it would be an essential action to stop the spread beyond the Sudanese borders and to prevent another potential pandemic.  Perhaps stopping one before it can spread would be particularly welcome on the heels COVID-19.  (See Topic # 9 for the definition of a pandemic.)

***

*** Topic for The Week of April 24, 2023 ***
Beer Steins, Clocks, and Mills

     What do beer steins, clocks, and fulling mills have in common?  Give up?  All of them are products from the bubonic plague.  Since the dawn of time, humans have adapted and invented because of historical events, and the Black Death during the Middle Ages is no exception. 
     Let’s discuss beer steins first because why not?  Whether plain, highly decorated, ceramic, or wood; vessels for beer would have been found everywhere prior to and after the outbreak of the Great Pestilence.  What separated the German beer stein from other mugs was its hinged, pewter top.  When in the throes of the bubonic plague, government officials decreed that all drinking establishments had to cover their stoneware with lids to prevent spread of disease.  So, the next time you use your thumb to open the lid of your beer stein, raise it and toast, “Prost,” to those wise government officials from the 13th century.
     Clocks became a necessity due to the overwhelming mortality suffered by humanity during the Black Death.  Because the workforce decreased greatly, the survivors could demand structured work hours and better pay.  To measure those work hours, clocks became ubiquitous.  Thanks to the tragic death rate during that plague, the work week with designated hours was born.
      Similarly, fulling mills came online because of the workforce shortage.  Water could turn the mill wheels to perform jobs once done by people.  Mills operated with greater efficiently, producing more fabrics in less time.  Further, because wages skyrocketed for survivors, those newly prosperous workers could afford extravagances like finer textiles.  
     There were other beneficial windfalls from the bubonic plague, but fulling mills, clocks, and beer steins are functional and fun representations.  How many of you have beer steins or appreciate the artwork?  (Let’s see via the poll.)  Perhaps clocks may not be as abundant as they were once due to cell phones, but they still may be found in many places.  Last, although not usually water powered now, mills work throughout the world, so we can buy a vast variety of clothing and other fabrics.  Therefore, we can thank a devastating illness for things we enjoy and use today.

*** Topic for The Week of April 17, 2023 ***
Quarantine Versus Isolation

     Many people confuse the terms quarantine and isolation.  You might wonder if the difference really matters.  The answer is it matters to the overall health and existence of our species.  Pandemics would qualify as a hazardous contagious disease, but even localized outbreaks of serious viruses or bacteria may prompt healthcare professionals to implement one or both actions.  Safeguarding a community from a disease catastrophe falls to health departments now, but such actions were employed by governments in history, too.  The reason for quarantining or isolating people both now is and was then to serve the best interests of the greater good.
     Let’s start to define the difference between the measures by looking at the origins of the words quarantine and isolation.  Quarantine comes from the Italian words “quaranta giorni,” meaning forty days.  Originally used during the Black Death in the Middle Ages, arriving ships and crew were held from entering port for enough time to ensure no one onboard was infected.  In other words, no one aboard ship was sick upon arrival and no one developed signs and symptoms during the imposed wait.  Whereas isolation’s derivation came from the Italian word insula (island) and French word Isolé (isolate), which, during the bubonic plague, referred to keeping the ill on the island Santa Maria di Nazaret for their treatment and separation from well people on the mainland.
     Why should someone need to be quarantined?  Like those who attempted to stop the Great Pestilence from spreading, medical professionals today have the power to order someone who has been exposed to a dangerous disease to keep away from others until he or she no longer poses the potential to shed the pathogen.  By keeping the person who was exposed to the threat quarantined for the incubation period of the illness, the chain for potential transmission is broken.  In other words, the exposed party never could pass the illness if he or she develops it.
     Conversely, it’s obvious why should someone who is sick needs to be isolated.  The ill person potentially expels germs as he or she breaths, coughs, sneezes, or voids other bodily fluids.  That person is already sick, presenting signs and symptoms, and they almost certainly would be contagious.  Keeping that individual away from those who are well, protects the healthy and breaks the potential for disease transmission.
     In summary, to quarantine means you’re not currently sick but may become ill because you were exposed to an infectious disease.  You stay away from others in case the virus or bacterium does sicken you.  To isolate means you are currently sick and you keep away from others so you do not expose them to the microorganism currently infecting you.  Knowing the distinctions between quarantine and isolation may help you to understand why health departments may need to impose them during a biothreat because it is for the greater good, including the survival of our species. 
***

*** Topic for April 10, 2023 ***
Spillover Virus: Influenza D

***
     On March 29, 2023, National Public Radio (NPR) published another article related to spillover viruses (https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2023/03/29/1160410178/a-new-flu-is-spilling-over-from-cows-to-people-in-the-u-s-how-worried-should-we-).  The title of the article: A new flu is spilling over from cows to people in the U.S. How worried should we be? gives us pause.  However, we should not develop unnecessary anxiety.  Rather, we should use the information to build knowledge about the it and other spillover viruses, enabling us to plan and prepare more effectively for the next pandemic.
     As we know, pandemics inevitably occur in a cyclical manor, but, unfortunately, the cycle is not uniform, making it difficult to know the cause and when the next one will strike.  A takeaway from the NPR article is that scientists can discover a potential threatening disease by identifying an emerging microorganism like Influenza D.  To recap, pigs in Oklahoma first exhibited Influenza D in 2011.  At that time, and until recently, it was believed Influenza D would remain restricted to cloven hoofed animals.  However, researchers proved that 2/3 of identified farmworkers had been infected with it.
     So what?  The answer boils down to two important points.  The first is that Influenza D may mutate into a virus that maintains successful transmission within the human population, making it a potential threat to us.  More importantly, it demonstrates that spillover viruses are not uncommon as once believed.  
     Again, why do we care?  As we encroach upon habitats for creatures that we have never contacted previously, we may become exposed to extremely dangerous spillover diseases.  Being novel to our population, humans would not have immunity.  Therefore, could some spillover virus (or other microorganism) emerge as the black swan pandemic like that in Black Swan Impact?  Simply put: Yes.
     Yet we needn’t become incapacitated by fear.  Knowledge is power.  Planning and preparing for the next pandemic will help to mitigate its effects.  Looking to scientists to study and identify spillover viruses is one vital element.  Then, it and other meaningful data will enable executive leaders, public health officials, medical practitioners, and emergency managers to devise and implement beneficial strategies and practices to mitigate the impacts of future pandemics.
***

*** Topic for April 3, 2023 ***
NPR Article with Quiz

     On January 30, 2023, National Public Radio (NPR) released an article about spillover viruses (https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2023/01/30/1148155088/quiz-test-your-knowledge-of-spillover-viruses-starting-with-what-are-they).  Some may say that it contained a gimmicky game, but I would argue that it used an interactive forum to relay information rather than passively doing so.  Remember the Benjamin Franklin quote, “Tell me and I forget.  Teach me and I remember.  Involve me and I learn.”  With that in mind, I invite you to take the article’s seven question quiz.  If you do, I believe that you will forevermore associate the subject of spillover viruses (and other microorganisms) with the facts you learned actively, enabling you to recall and discuss them better with others.  
     There are two reasons why this topic comprises today’s post.  The first is that spillover viruses or other spillover microorganisms could very well emerge as the cause of the next pandemic we face.  That next pandemic could be the black swan event that is comparable to the catastrophic, worldwide outbreak in Black Swan Impact.  The second reason why the NPR article leads today’s post is that I am interested in moving toward more interactive opportunities in this Black Swan Impact Newsletter space.  
     Perhaps a similar presentation to that of the NPR article would be valuable to you readers.  If there is an interactive competent beyond a simple poll, you may gain more from the experience.  The goal would be to engage you to the greatest extent possible.  As a former teacher, I appreciated and employed the point of Benjamin Franklin’s quote and may use that application periodically in Black Swan Impact Newsletter posts. 

 

DIRECTIONS: 
Once you have read the NPR article and taken the quiz, go to the Black Swan Newsletter post "NPR Article with Quiz" (https://helenhvettori.substack.com/p/npr-article-with-quiz) to answer the statement that you believe is best.  Your answer will also relay your opinion pertaining to the value of a similar interactive format that could be used in Black Swan Impact Newsletter posts from time-to-time.

*** Topic for March 27, 2023 ***

Black Swan Trilogy

     Over the past six months, Helen Hynson Vettori has introduced you to Black Swan Impact, her sci-fi political thriller that will be available in bookstores and online by the Spring of 2024.  It is also the first in a trilogy of black swan books.  This post will reveal information regarding the trio.  
     Please recall that the definition of a black swan incident or event is a catastrophic occurrence that no one could have foreseen or imagined because of its unprecedented impact.  (See Topic # 4 for full explanation of the term.)  Therefore, the trilogy will encompass three scenarios that inflict devastating forces and consequences.

 
     The overwhelming challenge in the first book, Back Swan Impact, is a deadly microorganism and the associated political fallout.  In depth details regarding this book may be found in Topic # 1, where among other information, you may find its synopsis.  Refer to Topic # 1 and other topics that have been posted over the past six months to gain finer details.  
     The second book is called Black Swan Shock.  The frightening threat in this book is a massive earthquake that affects many of the same characters introduced in Black Swan Impact despite it being decades later.  However, a new prominent character appears.  She is Syia Case’s daughter who finds herself performing heroic actions only a decathlete could perform.


SYNOPSIS FOR BLACK SWAN SHOCK

     The tour was supposed to be a joyful time for Dr. Syia Case and her daughter, Marla.  Together, they would travel throughout the United States to present scientific data for P17X1915, Syia’s newly developed treatment that could reverse Down Syndrome in fetuses, and the moral and ethical elements pertaining to its use.  Having the condition, herself and being an elite athlete, Marla personified the reason P17X1915 needn’t be a first option.  The mother/daughter’s tour begins well until it a devastating earthquake forces them and their closest friends to fight for their lives and those of others in unimaginable conditions.


     Black Swan Terror is the final book in the trilogy, and it centers on a terrorist attack.  While this third book is in its nascent stage, The author has set some ideas to paper.  The time past between this book and the second is short, and Marla is preparing to compete as a decathlete despite her struggles and those of her mother, Syia, after they survived a massive earthquake.  The year is 2146, and the Olympics are set to be held on the Moon as the first ever celestial games.  Supporters and subversives focus on the coveted and pioneering event, making it a security nightmare for officials to protect the athletes, spectators, and environmental dome in an otherwise inhospitable environment.
***

***Topic for The Week of March 20,2023 ***

Author’s Answers
 

     Question: Explain why you think that politicians in 2113 refer to China and Democratic People’s Republic Korea (DPRK) as Odile Major and Odile Minor respectively and how the slight came about.  

 

In Tchaikovsky’s famous ballet, Swan Lake, the prima ballerina dances the role of two characters: Odette and Odile.  They are the white swan, the protagonist, and the black swan, the antagonist, respectively.  Additionally, the meaning of a black swan incident or event is commonly known.  Since Odile is the black swan villain and the term black swan incident is understood, politicians use the reference behind closed doors to describe the two provocative nations.  They worry that China and DPRK could let loose inconceivable chaos upon Earth.
     

     Question: Who is your favorite character and why? 

 

This is always a fun question because everyone has different opinions and backgrounds that affect their choices.  I have several favorite characters in the novel, but since we are focusing on the Prologue and Chapter 2, I will choose Syia and Paul because, to me, they are inseparable.  Syia is strong, intelligent, and exotic.  Paul is unassuming, intelligent, and innovative.  Both have achieved great stature in their professional lives while also being kind and thoughtful.
   

     Question: What feature of the future world intrigued you most and why? 

 

The futuristic element that I like in the excerpts is the medibot.  Such a helpful aid would increase survival rates greatly and likely prevent human error while they render care.
     

     Questions (combined): Why are Syia and Paul at odds? / Why does Syia decide to move to China to work with Tahnee? / What ultimately prevents Syia from moving to China to work with Tahnee? / If Syia had been able to go, what do you think would have happened to the relationship with Paul?

 

Syia and Paul are at odds because Syia has not been able to accept the fact that she could not bring a child into the world via natural means, and Paul has moved on from the grief.  They have turned to work as a way to avoid each other and escape their problems.  Then, Syia decides she will go to China to work with Tahnee, finalizing the couple’s separation until an explosion in the lab prevents her from going.  Had the explosion not occurred, the couple likely would have divorced because they would have been far away emotionally and physically.  Fate enables Syia and Paul to find their way back to one another.  
     

     Question: What unnerves Syia and Tahnee, and how do these fears set the plot in motion? 

 

Syia and Tahnee are unnerved by a potential looming war and an unknown disease in bats.  We learn war is not the imminent danger, but the new pathogen becomes the frightening threat.  It seems clear that the microorganism will be very dangerous to humans when the lab tech mirrors the signs and symptoms displayed in the bat i.e., hemorrhaging from orifices and squeaking in a high pitch, foreshadowing what is to come.
     

     Questions (combined): What do we and Syia learn after she awakens from her nightmare? / What is the pivotal moment for Syia and where is she when she has her revelation?

 

After Syia awakens from her nightmare, we learn along with her that she is distraught at the thought of Paul dying.  Her anxiety becomes compounded by the fact that the couple is spending the night together unexpectedly.  She almost runs away from him again, but he convinces her that he cares and wants her to stay.  Despite his outreach, Syia is unable to go back to sleep, so she gets up and takes a shower.  There she ruminates over all that has transpired.  Ultimately, she realizes that she truly loves Paul and must accept that she could not bear a child.  At that pivotal moment, she recommits to the relationship. 
 

Note: The answers above were derived from last week’s asynchronous book club.  Not all of the questions asked last week appear here because some of the answers appeared in previous newsletter posts.

*** Topic for The Week of March 13, 2023 ***

To experience the videocast for this week's post, go to https://helenhvettori.substack.com/p/black-swan-impact-video-book-club.

*** Topic for The Week of March 6, 2023 ***

To experience the podcast for this week's post, go to https://helenhvettori.substack.com/p/author-reads-a-passage-from-black#details.

*** Topic for The Week of February 27, 2023 ***

     No one can truly understand someone else’s trouble unless they have experienced exactly the same ordeal or have witnessed something similar, which provides a bridge.  Therefore, I believe for readers to grasp how brutal the pandemic that strikes the people in Black Swan Impact, visceral descriptions must be pervasive and shocking.  Then, readers can recall similar experiences, giving them the necessary revelations and empathy for characters in crisis.
     The first draft of my manuscript had about 71,000 words.  That met the minimum standard for a typical adult novel, which is 70,000 – 120,000 words in length.  Now it hits the upper margin because of three major elements that I incorporated in subsequent drafts.  First, I enriched characters.  Second, I developed a better vision of the future world.  Finally, I dove deep into descriptions of the illness caused by the pathogen that emerges in Black Swan Impact.  
     The macabre aspects of the disease prompts you to feel the fear those characters face in the sci-fi political thriller because many of you have watched movies or read books about terrifying outbreaks or zombie apocalypses, or even have experienced grave illnesses or injuries yourselves.  Additionally, according to the article Deconstructing anxiety, humans usually innately fear sickness, pain, and death (
https://ct.counseling.org/2020/01/deconstructing-anxiety/), giving readers another bridge.  In short, shocking descriptions captivate you.
     Consider the “Window” for Chapter Two (See Topic # 5).  What if it had been presented in less vivid terms as shown in Example One?  Would it have impacted you as greatly as the final Window shown in Example Two?  You decide.
EXAMPLE ONE
     “Far away in China near the border with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea a physician paced rather than taking to a bed.  ‘Don’t give into this pathogen,’ he cried out.  ‘If you relent, you will not be able to continue making reports, and you will not have a chance to beat this microorganism attacking you!’  
     “Consumed with fever, he shivered uncontrollably and wanted to quench his insatiable thirst.  However, he could not.  ‘Command: Display current data,’ he managed to say.  The requested information appeared above his desk.  The doctor stumbled toward it, slipping on the floor.  He landed hard, screaming as he fell.  There the doctor died like thousands of others nearby and in Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.”
EXAMPLE TWO
      “Far away in China near the border with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea a physician paced rather than taking to a bed.  ‘Don’t give into this pathogen,’ he cried out.  ‘If you relent, you will not be able to continue making reports, and you will not have a chance to beat this microorganism attacking you!’  
     “Skin and muscle tissue dripped from the doctor’s body.  While his composite suit contained the sloughing masses from his torso, he could not prevent bloody and purulent tissue from sliding off his skull, arms, and legs.  Chunks splattered onto the floor and blood then oozed from those avulsed areas.  The pain increased as more tissue dropped away.  Consumed with fever, he shivered uncontrollably and wanted to quench his insatiable thirst.  However, he could not because his neck swelled as if he had an allergic reaction. 
     “‘Command: Display current data,’ he managed to say.  The requested information appeared above his desk.  The doctor stumbled toward it, slipping on the floor.  He landed hard, screaming as he fell.  Blood and other bodily fluids poured from every orifice.  Finally, he convulsed for several seconds before he became rigid.  Gurgling with a few agonal breaths, the doctor died like thousands of others nearby and in Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.”

*** Topic for The Week of February 13, 2023 ***
My Grandmother Survived The Spanish Flu And Her Experience Influenced Me

***
     My grandmother died in 1989, at the age of 91.  A kind, loving, strong, and trailblazing woman, she lived quite a remarkable life in part by earning a bachelor’s degree when women barely graduated from high school and by working in her family’s pharmacy when women usually did not work outside of the home.  She also survived several serious health crises, one being the Spanish flu, and her relayed memory of it influenced me.
     Spanish flu is a common name for the 1918 – 1919 Pandemic.  You may remember it being mentioned in newsletter topics # 1, 4, 17, and 18.  It also appears in my sci-fi political thriller Black Swan Impact.  I refer to it often for good reason.  That pandemic remains a modern-day benchmark for its overwhelming morbidity and mortality.  Some estimate 50 million people perished.  Others claim as many as 100 million passed away.  Additionally, the CDC estimates about 500 million people were infected worldwide (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html).  That’s about 1/3 of the population at the time, and Grandma was one who survived it to tell her story.
     In hindsight I wish that I had listened to her account more carefully, but her emotions related to fear and pain forever stuck with me.  Grandma was in the age group that suffered most.  Ironically, healthy young adults succumbed due to their robust immune response.  Cytokines raced to their lungs to fight the virus only to create such a storm that severe pneumonia developed quickly: often in mere hours.  At 21 years old, the struggle to breathe and to overcome raging fever, pounding headache, and awful muscle pain caused her to fear that she was going to die, but she also lamented that she might not.  Grandma admitted that a swift death would have released her from agony, yet as I stated, she was tenacious and her family owned a pharmacy.  
     I have no doubt that her strong will helped her to live.  Moreover, I expect her pharmacist uncle made something that helped to restore her health.  Perhaps a medicine he dispensed to Grandma gave her additional fortitude.  Although Grandma may have taken “Health Restorer” to mitigate the effects of the Spanish flu, I will never know for sure because so much knowledge was lost when she passed away.  Still, I have a memory of her account of her historic illness.  It influenced me throughout my life as a paramedic who strived to aid sick and injured, an emergency manager who planned and prepared for biological threats, and the author of Black Swan Impact because Grandma so passionately described the pandemic calamity that struck a century ago. 

***

*** Topic for The Week of February 6, 2023 ***

Zombie Viruses

     Zombies are not just fictitious undead in literature or film.  Nature tries to keep them hidden, yet there are such things as Zombie viruses!  They may be defined as microorganisms that emerge after being dormant for millennia and never having circulated amongst humans.  The ancient microorganisms froze in time, trapped but not dead in permafrost or glaciers.  Zombie viruses can be awakened from their inactive existence if they thaw as permafrost and ice fields melt away.  The concern, therefore, is the potential of a novel virus infecting and killing billions via a devastating pandemic.

     The key adjective “novel” means that humans likely would not have any or much immunity to combat the new germ.  Just as advisors feared SARS CoV-2 would burn through a vulnerable population, a future Zombie virus may, indeed, achieve that doomsday scenario.  COVID-19 did not end up being as catastrophic as once feared, but that fact should not portend what may come.

     In Black Swan Impact, such a virus rears its ugly head.  People die horrific deaths and in great numbers.  Dr. Syia Case informs President Piper and the senior staff of the gravity of the situation in Chapter 9. 

     “ ‘The spread of the disease is exponential.  The number of infected rises in dramatic fashion.  The image you see before you shows only the first six days.  At the one-week mark, there would be 2,187 people infected.  A week later, at day 14, there would be 4,782,969 people infected.  At three weeks, there would be 10,460,353,203 people infected, which is only one billion short of current global population.  Therefore, before the end of one month, humans could be completely extinct without interventions or S Curve considerations. 

     ‘Yes, I said it.  Extinct!  Until we have firm data, we must assume that it’s likely that most Earthlings will die in a short period of time if we do nothing.  They may perish in weeks or perhaps a few months, but certainly in well under a year.  Those who do survive infection will try to scratch out an existence, but their scant numbers will make it impossible for humans to recover.  They may struggle for a few years, but they will die, as well.  Our species will become extinct from the face of this Earth!  I realize it sounds dramatic, but it’s got to be said.  Believe me, saying it makes the hairs on the back of my neck stand up!

     ‘Then unless Martians abandon their colony, they likely would perish as a downstream consequence since they depend almost entirely on supplies from Earth.  No one on Earth would be able to grow enough food, manufacture goods, or build and maintain rocket ships to continue the supply chain.’  

     ‘Lunarists would come to the rescue,’ Piper interjected.

     Syia cocked her head.  ‘For Martians yes.  But would they rescue Earthlings?  I’m not so sure.  The fear of bringing the contagion back to the Moon might cause Lunarists to abandon those remaining on Earth.’

     ‘That wouldn’t happen,’ the President protested.

     The epidemiologist responded, ‘I hope I’m wrong.  But even if the Lunarists do come to the aid of the remaining Earthlings and all Martians, the human race would be an endangered species.  How many will there be left in the universe in twelve months?  One million?  Ten?  When the population of a species declines by at least 20% within five years, it is endangered.  It’s almost certain that we’d more than reach that benchmark. …’"

***

 

*** Topic for The Week of January 30, 2023 ***

Interview with A Subject Matter Expert

     Robert C. Hutchinson received his graduate degrees at the University of Delaware in public administration and Naval Postgraduate School in homeland security studies; is a long-time contributor to the Domestic Preparedness Journal; and was the former deputy special agent in charge and acting special agent in charge with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Homeland Security Investigations in Miami, Florida.  Hutchinson retired in 2016 after more than 28 years as a special agent with DHS and the legacy U.S. Customs Service.  He was previously the deputy director for the agency’s national emergency preparedness division and assistant director for its national firearms and tactical training division.  His numerous writings and presentations often address the important need for cooperation, coordination and collaboration between the fields of public health, emergency management and law enforcement, especially in the area of pandemic preparedness, making his interview appropriate for this newsletter. 
***
1.    How did you achieve subject matter expertise in emergency management?
Through experience, education, training and proactive learning, I have tried to expand my knowledge, skills and abilities in emergency management in conjunction with law enforcement and public health.  The collaboration, coordination and cooperation bridges can always be improved or strengthened.

 

2.    What is the name of your company and why did you choose it?
Black Swans Consulting LLC., was incorporated in 2015.  The name was chosen from the critical book and an article I wrote in 2013 - "Black Swans - Preparing for Pandemic & Biological Threats."

 

3.    Why have you written many articles regarding emergency planning, preparedness, with potential response and recovery required to manage biological threats?
I have written 33 articles in four different publications regarding the importance of preparedness in the overlapping areas of emergency management, law enforcement and public health.  The lack of preparedness for a pandemic or serious pathogenic threat was the subject of over 25 of the articles since 2013.

 

4.    What particular biological threat(s) keep you awake at night and why?
A novel viral pandemic was my major concern for the numerous articles, to include specifically a novel coronavirus, before the arrival of SARS-CoV-2.  My focus now is a bioterror or biowarfare attack with a novel or enhanced pathogen.  We would not be ready.  That keeps me awake at nights.  The vulnerability of our power grid is a close second.

 

5.    Related to question # 4, do you believe that a black swan pandemic equal to or greater in morbidity and mortality to the 1918-1919 Influenza Pandemic or to the Black Plague will occur in your lifetime?
I do expect an even more serious pandemic, man-made or naturally occurring, in our future with a mortality rate significantly higher than one percent.  With travel and trade ever-expanding along with human encroachment into undeveloped areas, we are destined to encounter new pathogens that will not be our friends.

 

6.     As a former federal employee with notable emergency management experience, in your opinion, what is the USA’s greatest emergency management achievement and could it benefit the response to future biological threats?
The federal government is rather good at developing national strategies, but not as successful with their implementation plans and subsequent processes for preparedness and accountability.  Unfortunately, high-level strategies are often linked to an administration and not always adopted or supported by the next administration.  Bio-strategies can be split into several critical documents over the years that may not work well to together leaving gaps or confusion.  A high-level strategy appears beneficial until it sits on a dusty shelf or in a hard drive for years without true action.  Surprising to some, just publishing of the strategy is not the final outcome - it is the first step.  The response to SARS-CoV-2 painfully demonstrated the perils of inaction.

 

7.    As a former federal employee with notable emergency management experience, in your opinion, what is the USA’s greatest emergency management foible and could it negatively affect responses to future biological threats if not corrected?
We rarely truly learn.  After action reports are written and too often ignored.  After action reports can be written to conceal errors and lessons learned to reduce embarrassment, accountability or liability.  The most unfortunate and frustrating observation is that disaster pays magnitudes more than preparedness (never let a good disaster go to waste).  The amount of funds expended in the last two years along with the current and future social, financial, economic, political, geopolitical and other consequences demonstrate this sad observation.

 

8.    What article(s) that you have written and/or associated Websites would you like to recommend to the subscribers of the Black Swan Impact Newsletter?

 

Below are links to some articles Mr. Hutchinson wrote.  
 

Hutchinson, Robert. "There Was a Pandemic Strategy and Plan” Domestic Preparedness, August 17, 2022. https://www.domesticpreparedness.com/healthcare/there-was-a-pandemic-strategy-and-plan/ 
Hutchinson, Robert. "Another Opportunity to Prepare for Quarantines” Domestic Preparedness, November 10, 2021. https://www.domprepjournal.com/healthcare/another-opportunity-to-prepare-for-quarantines/ 
Hutchinson, Robert. "Impact of Critical Biosecurity Reports – Uncertainty Remains” Domestic Preparedness, May 26, 2021. https://www.domesticpreparedness.com/preparedness/impact-of-critical-biosecurity-reports-uncertainty-remains/ 

Hutchinson, Robert. "The Next Black Swan - Bioterrorism” Domestic Preparedness, December 9, 2020.  https://www.domesticpreparedness.com/commentary/the-next-black-swan-bioterrorism/ 
Hutchinson, Robert. "Public Health or Economic Health – Not a Binary Decision” Domestic Preparedness, June 4, 2020.  https://www.domesticpreparedness.com/site/assets/files/11220/acceptablelossreport.pdf 
Hutchinson, Robert. "Black Swans – Preparing for Pandemic and Biological Threats in 2020." IAEM Bulletin, April 2020, (Vol. 37 No. 4). https://www.iaem.org/Portals/25/documents/202004bulletinonline.pdf 
Hutchinson, Robert. "Biothreats - Advocating Action Through Transition." Domestic Preparedness, November 28, 2017. https://www.domesticpreparedness.com/healthcare/biothreats-advocating-action-through-transition/ 
Hutchinson, Robert. "Pandemic Crossroads." Homeland Security Today, March/April 2017, (Vol. 14, No. 2). http://edition.pagesuite-professional.co.uk//launch.aspx?eid=4e23f1cc-175a-4c83-b24a-ef50463f2dc3 
Hutchinson, Robert. "Border Control Challenges - A Year Later." Domestic Preparedness, March 8, 2017. https://www.domesticpreparedness.com/commentary/border-control-challenges-a-year-later/ 
Hutchinson, Robert. "Preparing for a New Pandemic with an Old Plan." Domestic Preparedness, December 7, 2016. www.domesticpreparedness.com/healthcare/preparing-for-a-new-pandemic-with-an-old-plan/ 
Hutchinson, Robert. "Threats Evolving Faster Than Preparedness." Domestic Preparedness, July 1, 2016. https://www.domesticpreparedness.com/healthcare/threats-evolving-faster-than-preparedness/ 
Hutchinson, Robert. "From Avian Flu to Zika: Preparedness Standards Matter." IAEM Bulletin, March 2016, (Vol. 33 No. 3). 
Hutchinson, Robert. "Uncertain Impact of Critical Biosecurity Reports." Domestic Preparedness, January 6, 2016. https://www.domesticpreparedness.com/healthcare/uncertain-impact-of-critical-biosecurity-reports/ 
Hutchinson, Robert. "Quarantine Enforcement: Time to Work the Issue." IAEM Bulletin, July 2015, (Vol. 32 No.7). https://disastersandfaith.files.wordpress.com/2015/07/iaem-newsletter-july2015.pdf 
Hutchinson, Robert. "Relying on Good Fortune – Not an Acceptable Preparedness Strategy." Domestic Preparedness, April 1, 2015.  https://www.domesticpreparedness.com/commentary/relying-on-good-fortune-not-an-acceptable-preparedness-strategy/ 
Hutchinson, Robert. "Ebola: Lessons Learned or Lost." IAEM Bulletin, January 2015, (Vol. 32 No.1 ).
Hutchinson, Robert. "Ebola – Another Opportunity to Plan and Prepare." Domestic Preparedness, January 6, 2015. https://www.domesticpreparedness.com/healthcare/ebola-another-opportunity-to-plan-prepare/ 
Hutchinson, Robert. "National Strategy for Biosecurity Threats." Domestic Preparedness, August 20, 2014. https://www.domesticpreparedness.com/resilience/national-strategy-for-biosecurity-threats/ 
Hutchinson, Robert. "International Public Health Concerns – Not So Foreign." Domestic Preparedness, July 16, 2014. https://www.domprep.com/healthcare/international-public-health-concerns-not-so-foreign/ 
Hutchinson, Robert. "Foreign Pathogenic Threats: Closer Than We Think." IAEM Bulletin, July 2014, (Vol. 31 No. 7). http://usfa.kohalibrary.com/app/work/39047 
Hutchinson, Robert. "Preparedness & Progress for Emerging Pathogenic Threats." Domestic Preparedness, March 2014.  https://www.domesticpreparedness.com/healthcare/preparedness-progress-for-emerging-pathogenic-threats/ 
Hutchinson, Robert. "Pathogenic Threats: Progress and Perils in 2014." IAEM Bulletin, March 2014, (Vol. 31 No. 3).
Hutchinson, Robert. "Preparedness Training & Potential Liabilities." Domestic Preparedness, December 2013. https://www.domesticpreparedness.com/preparedness/preparedness-training-potential-liabilities/ 
Hutchinson, Robert. "Black Swans - Preparing for Pandemic & Biological Threats." Domestic Preparedness, November 2013. https://www.domesticpreparedness.com/healthcare/black-swans-preparing-for-pandemic-biological-threats/ 
Hutchinson, Robert. "Are We Prepared for MERS or Another Pandemic?" Emergency Management, June 2013. http://www.emergencymgmt.com/health/Prepared-MERS-Pandemic.html and https://www.govtech.com/magazines/em/July-2013.html 
Hutchinson, Robert. "Are You Prepared for an Emerging Pandemic Threat?" IAEM Bulletin, June 2013, (Vol. 30 No. 6).  
Hutchinson, Robert. "Deliberate Indifference: Is there legal liability for the failure to train and prepare our personnel?" IAEM Bulletin, October 2011, (Vol. 28 No. 10).
***

We will explore zombie viruses next week.  (Articles will be published every Monday unless otherwise stated.)

***

***Topic for the Week of January 23***
Future Black Swan Pandemics

     Fact: A pandemic may be defined as an outbreak, often from a new infectious disease, occurring with nearly or actually simultaneous transmission worldwide and affecting a large number of people. 
     My Opinion: Notice the definition of a pandemic does not include a criterion for death.  Pandemics may have relatively low mortality rate like the 2009 – 2010 Swine flu.  Conversely, they may impact human mortality greatly.  For example, the 1918 – 1919 Influenza Pandemic killed up to 100 million people.  My grandmother was infected and very ill with the Spanish flu.  However, she survived to pass down the experience.  Her recollection haunted me but also helped me to understand the potential threat.  Furthermore, from my subject matter expertise, I know black swan pandemics are inevitable.  COVID-19 has been a struggle, but a pandemic with even greater impact lurks in the future.
     Fact: History proves that pandemics occur regularly.  Generally, pandemics occur every three to four decades.  The Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy states that pandemics arise “every 30 to 35 years or so, or roughly three per century” (https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2007/02/severe-pandemic-not-overdue-its-not-when-if).  
     My Opinion: The chance of future pandemics repeatedly emerging is 100 percent, and the frequency of pandemics likely will become greater as the human population expands exponentially.  Requiring more space to live, humans will continue to encroach on habitats of wildlife and experience ever greater opportunities of exposures to novel microorganisms.  The chances that the new biological threats will be extremely deadly increase with each exposure, making a recipe for disaster comparable to that in my sci-fi political thriller, Black Swan Impact.
     Fact: There are many beneficial actions that can prevent or mitigate pandemics.  Four are:  
1.    Use scientific sentinel data to identify a disease that has the potential to emerge as a pandemic.  
2.    Study public health mistakes and best practices to understand how to avoid miscues and implement successful actions in the future.    
3.    Use imagination to innovate responses.       
4.    Codify a US strategy to strengthen health security and prepare for biothreats.  
     My Opinion: On October 18, 2022, the Biden Administration announced a new strategy that will be “a whole-of-government effort across 20 Federal Agencies to detect, prevent, prepare for, respond to, and recover from biological incidents, in partnership with our international, state, local, tribal, territorial, and private sector partners” (https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/10/18/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-releases-strategy-to-strengthen-health-security-and-prepare-for-biothreats/).  This new US strategy to detect, prevent, prepare for, respond to, and recover from biological incidents is a welcome development; but only with ongoing robust efforts can it truly be successful.  Please recall Topic # 1 where I explained, “In 2005, President George W. Bush tasked the Federal Government to plan and prepare for a pandemic because his advisors warned that it was overdue to strike.”  Then, in Topic # 4, I pointed out, “regrettably, planning and preparing for pandemics waned over the years and across administrations.  Funding fell and greater attention moved to other political agendas.”  It is essential not to allow planning and preparing for biological threats to fall off again.  Moreover, embracing best practices and lessons learned related to previous outbreaks and weaving them into the new plan will enhance it.  The recurring threat of pandemics will never diminish.  Some of those world-wide outbreaks may not impact humans too greatly; however, others certainly will be black swans where even human existence may be challenged.    
***

Recommended Related Articles:
Becker, Scott J. (2022, November 5). After COVID and monkeypox, it's time to rethink how U.S. responds to infectious diseases. USA Today. https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2022/11/05/covid-monkeypox-us-infectious-disease-response-testing/8247536001/
Frieden, Dr. Tom and Matsoso, Precious (2022, November 4). Lessons from past outbreaks can stop new epidemics in their tracks. CNN. https://apple.news/A6y0AHy1kSA2j9yXQyIu_gQ
Hutchinson, Robert C. (2022, August 17). There Was a Pandemic Strategy and Plan. Domestic Preparedness. https://www.domesticpreparedness.com/healthcare/there-was-a-pandemic-strategy-and-plan/ 
Velappan, Nileena. Davis-Anderson, Katie. Deshpande, Alina. (2022, February 24). Warning Signs of Potential Black Swan Outbreaks in Infectious Disease. PubMed. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35283852/ 
***

 

*** Topic for The Week of January 9, 2023 ***
The Black Swan Impact Logo

     Since you have read only the sneak peek Chapter Two and a few snippets from Black Swan Impact, you cannot yet fully appreciate the logo’s design.  Therefore, in order to describe the rationale behind the design, you will become privy to more details of the plot.  Learning some of these details may entice you to read the sci-fi political thriller when it becomes available on or before March 2024.  Conversely, knowing some of them may spoil the arc of the plot for you.  Therefore, decide whether or not to continue reading Topic # 16, or more particularly the final paragraph.
 

***

     As you learned in Topic # 4 (The Definition And Derivation of Black Swan Incident or Event), a Black Swan Incident or Event is a term used to describe a catastrophic occurrence that no one could have foreseen or imagined because of its unprecedented impact.  In the sci-fi political thriller, Black Swan Impact, a new virus burns through the population of Earth with astounding speed and ferocity.  It causes such universal fear that humans living on the Moon close their port.  Knowing that, the prominent image of the winged black swan super imposed over our blue planet should not be a surprise.  Additionally, the viruses swirling around Earth like electrons orbiting an atom may be obvious.  Nonetheless, as devastating as the microorganism is to everyone inhabiting Earth, it is not the only calamitous element.  
     In 2113, the directives and decisions made by President Daniel Piper edge the United States toward a totalitarian existence.  Moreover, Piper becomes increasingly paranoid, causing him to execute Machiavellian maneuvers.  When shocked advisors stand to oppose the president, nightmarish consequences befall them as well as the American people.  Therefore, the image of the black swan nearly covers the U.S.
     With the plot in mind, I sketched out the image above.  The drawing differs slightly from the logo produced to accommodate graphic and media requirements.  What does differ is that Alaska is covered in the final image.  (Spoiler Alert: The next sentences have information about events surrounding characters that you may wish to read as the plot unfolds in the book rather than suddenly here.)  As you saw in Topic # 13’s article (Two Amazing Locations that Readers Will See In Black Swan Impact), Syia ends up as a prisoner in Alaska.  What you have never learned before now, is that Paul and Marla end up marooned in Florida.  Syia escapes her captivity, which makes the obscured state of Alaska in the logo acceptable.  Paul and Marla, on the other hand, die as a consequence of their plight, making the view of Florida crucial.

 

***

*** Topic for The Week of January 9, 2023 ***

WEFTY

The Game Designed by Helen Hynson Vettori

***

The game Wefty is mentioned five times in the sci-fi political thriller Black Swan Impact and may be a favorite holiday gift in the future.

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Number and Age of Players

     Wefty may be played by 2 – 4 players or teams who are 12 years and up.  Solo Wefty is played by one individual (12 years and up) but is augmented by “cloned” avatar opponent(s).  (Avatar opponent(s) are computer derived from characteristics of the solo human individual, so he or she truly plays against himself or herself.) 

 

OBJECT

     The object of the game is to conquer opposing kingdom(s) while also fortifying your own kingdom. 

 

EQUIPMENT

  • Wefty game platform (electronic gameboard)  

  • Wefty computer to operate images, roll dice, and provide questions

  • Playing pieces – 48 soldiers, 4 heliraptors, and 4 spies

 

SETUP

     Each player or team will place two soldiers, one heliraptor, and one spy on their home squares in the center of their kingdoms.

The player(s) agree upon and instruct the computer to prepare questions from a single category, questions from specific categories to be generated at random, or questions from any random categories designated by the computer.

     The player or team with a birthday closest to the day of game play goes first.  Then player or teams take their turns in clockwise order.  In Solo Wefty, the human always goes first.  The avatar opponent(s) follow in clockwise turn(s).

     The computer generates the electronic playing field on the platform (gameboard) with mountains, valleys, forests, rivers, and kingdoms.  A grid overlays the projection of the miniature world.  The grid designates squares for movement of playing pieces.  The field of play will have the appropriate number of kingdoms, surrounded by vertical electronic wall beams, appropriate number of home square(s), breach squares encircling the exterior of every wall of kingdoms, four each of hidden trap and assistance squares, and clearly designated question squares appropriately scattered throughout the board.   The computer will generate the same number of question squares within each kingdom, but those squares are not exclusive to the player or team for the given kingdom.  Any piece may take advantage of a question square in any kingdom.

     Players will only discover the locations of the hidden trap or assistance squares if they land on them.  Once a hidden square has been used, the computer will reassign a replacement square with the same function elsewhere unless a spy has disabled a trap square.  Once again, the new location of the assistance square or trap square will not be apparent to the players until a piece lands on it.  

     If two players or teams oppose one another, each of their kingdoms encompass half of the playing field.  If three players or teams oppose one another, the computer will divide the board into three equally sized kingdoms.  If four players or teams oppose one another, the board is split into quadrants.  In Solo Wefty, the individual designates the total number of avatar opponent(s) the computer will operate and the game proceeds just as it would for Wefty play.

 

RULES AND GAME PLAY

     To begin a turn, a player or team instructs the computer to roll the dice, designating the number of spaces a player or team may move a soldier, heliraptor, or spy.  Moving to question squares should be a high priority early in the game.  Answering questions on question squares allows a player or team to take chosen actions.

Function of Moving Pieces

     Soldiers move one direction away from its kingdom the number of rolled spaces until the player or team answers a question correctly on a question square, is freed from a trap square, uses the power of an assistance square, or lands on a breech square of the wall to a kingdom.  Players then may change the travel of soldiers to a declared forward or sideways direction, but the soldiers must maintain the route of travel until another change can be declared as previously outlined.  If trapped on a trap square, the soldier must be freed before moving again.  If a soldier lands on a square outside of a kingdom that is occupied by an opponent’s piece, the opponent’s piece must go back to the home square of its kingdom and the newly landed soldier remains on the space, ending the turn.  If a soldier lands on the home square of an opponent’s kingdom that is occupied by an opponent’s piece or pieces, the opponent’s piece or pieces is/are lost for the remainder of the game and the invading soldier may answer the question for conquering the kingdom.  (See Conquering An Opponent’s Kingdom.)

     Heliraptors may move up, down, sideways, and diagonally the number of rolled squares but only one of the chosen directions per turn.  Heliraptors also may fly over obstacles like mountains and rivers without having to use passes or bridges.  If trapped on a trap square, the heliraptor must be freed before moving again.  If a heliraptor lands on a square occupied by an opponent’s piece, the opponent’s piece must go back to the home square of its kingdom and the player or team owning that returned piece loses their next turn.  The newly landed heliraptor remains on the space, ending the turn.  If a heliraptor lands on the home square of an opponent’s kingdom that is occupied by an opponent’s piece or pieces, the opponent’s piece or pieces is/are lost for the remainder of the game and the invading heliraptor may answer the question for conquering the kingdom.  (See Conquering An Opponent’s Kingdom.)

     Spies may move the number of rolled spaces to any adjacent square(s), changing directions at any time during the move.  Unlike the other playing pieces, they will not become trapped when landing on a trap square and the function of that trap square ends for the remainder of the game.  If a spy lands on a square occupied by an opponent’s piece, the opponent’s piece must be removed from play for the remainder of the game.  The newly landed spy remains on the space, ending the turn.   If a spy lands on the home square of an opponent’s kingdom that is occupied by an opponent’s piece or pieces, the opponent’s piece or pieces is/are lost for the remainder of the game and the invading spy may answer the question for conquering the kingdom.  (See Conquering An Opponent’s Kingdom.)

Building A Cadre of Playing Pieces

     To increase playing piece cadres during the game, players or teams may 1.) Answer questions correctly on Question Squares and chose to add one soldier to its army, 2.) Use the Assistance Square power to add one soldier to its army, 3.) Trade three soldiers to add a heliraptor, 4.) Trade six soldiers to add a spy, or 5.) Trade three soldiers and one heliraptor to add a spy.

Question Squares

     When a player or team lands a playing piece on a question square, the player or team asks the computer to generate a question.  Having been established at the beginning, the computer will ask a question from a single category, a question from one of the categories designated by the players or teams, or a question from any category determined by the computer.  None of the player’s or team’s pieces can revisit the same square in consecutive turns.

     Correctly answering a question allows players or teams to take an additional turn and the choice to either 1.) Change direction of travel for a given piece, 2.) Build a horizontal electric beam in their defensive wall, 3.) Remove a horizontal electric beam from an opponent’s wall, 4.) Save a trapped player, or 5.) Add a soldier to its army.  The newly added soldier starts in the home square of its kingdom. 

     Incorrectly answering a question requires the players or teams to remove one horizonal electronic beam from their kingdom’s walls.  If the wall for the kingdom belonging to the player or team that missed a question does not have any horizontal beams, the turn simply ends.  If the missed question occurs when the player’s or team’s piece is in the center of an opponent’s kingdom, not only is one of its own horizontal electronic beams forfeited, but the breeching piece lost for the remainder of the game, as well.

 

Assistance Squares

     An assistance square is discovered only when a piece lands on it.  The player or team chooses how the power of the assistance square will be used by either 1.) Freeing a designated trapped piece, 2.) Adding a new soldier to its cadre (the new soldier starts in the center of its kingdom), or 3.) Leaps the piece to the closest question square to answer a question.

 

Trap Squares

     A trap square is discovered only when a piece lands on it.  The piece is stuck and lost from play unless a 1.) A piece from the same team (or allied team) lands on the square as a rescue, 2.) The player or team uses the power of an assistance square to remove the confinement, or 3.) The piece is a spy and the trap square becomes disabled for the remainder of the game.  The player or team that owns the then freed piece may move it from that space on the next turn.

 

Building A Kingdom Wall

     Completing the defensive wall is one of two objectives to win the game.  Opponent pieces cannot penetrate a completed electronic curtain.

     To complete the wall, players or teams must add five horizontal electronic beams by correctly answering questions and opting to do so.  A player or team must command the computer to construct the horizontal beam.  If the player(s) do(es) not make the verbal command, the opportunity to build is lost when the next dice roll occurs.

     Note: Opposing pieces may penetrate the wall when it is unfinished.  At the beginning of play, each kingdom is encircled by an uncompleted defensive electronic curtain because only the vertical electronic wall beams are in place initially. 

 

Conquering An Opponent’s Kingdom

     Conquering an opponent’s kingdom is one of two objectives to win the game.  When an opponent reaches the wall of an enemy kingdom by landing on a breech gateway square directly next to the wall, it may penetrate only if the electronic wall is not completed.  Further, the player or team must roll the exact number of spaces to the kingdom’s center before answering the question.  Until the player can reach the kingdom center with the exact number rolled, the playing piece may skirt the kingdom in the circling breech squares. 

     If the player or team answers the question correctly, the player or team has conquered the kingdom.  The falling kingdom game pieces become game pieces for the conquering kingdom.  If the attacking player or team answers incorrectly, the computer will automatically take that playing piece out of play for the remainder of the game and remove one horizontal electronic beam of the kingdom wall belonging to the unsuccessful conqueror unless that kingdom has none to take.

 

WINNING THE GAME

     Once a player or team successfully fortifies their own kingdom with a completed electronic wall and conquers the opposing kingdom(s), that player or team wins!

 

ADDITIONAL NOTES FOR STRATEGIC PLAY

     Players may forge and break alliances throughout the game when there are three or four players or teams.  However, the discussions for forming or breaking alliances must occur only at the beginning of the turn of one of the parties before rolling the dice, and the agreements must be made aloud.  If an alliance is struck, each ally will add one soldier to its cadre of playing pieces.  The newly added soldiers must start in the center of each of the newly allied kingdoms.  Only one player or team can win the game, so alliances must be broken before breeching the wall of an opponent’s kingdom.  The player or team breaking alliances lose(s) his/her/their soldier that was added when the alliance was struck.  However, the added soldier for the player or team removed from the alliance keep(s) the added soldier.

     Having a soldier or heliraptor successfully land on a breech gateway square directly next to the wall must occur only with an exact roll.  If the approaching soldier or heliraptor has a roll that is too great, the player or team may move a different piece elsewhere on the board or move the approaching piece to the breech gateway square and back out the number of squares left in the roll.  Spies may skirt the wall with remaining square moves, enabling it to breech on the next turn.

***

Unique Article Suspension in Observance of The Holiday

     A unique article for the Black Swan Impact Newsletter will not be posted today, but, if you have not already done so, you may wish to submit a creative response to Topic # 14, CHALLENGE: Imagine & Design The Game Wefty or Solo Wefty (December 19, 2022) in the chat for the Black Swan Impact Newsletter.  You may access the newsletter by clicking on the link: https://helenhvettori.substack.com/p/black-swan-impact-newsletter-338.  Remember, your design for the game Wefty (or Solo Wefty) might be voted the best by fellow subscribers.  If you achieve that distinction, you will win a golf shirt imprinted with the Black Swan Impact logo and bragging rights.  New articles will resume on January 9, 2023, when I will offer my vision of the game Wefty.  Note that subscribers may still upload designs for the game if they wish.  Happy and safe holiday season with family and friends.  Cheers from Helen Hynson Vettori!

***Topic for The Week of December 19, 2022***
CHALLENGE: Imagine & Design The Game Wefty and/or Solo Wefty  

     According to The Free Dictionary, the definition of weft is, “The horizontal threads interlaced through the warp in a woven fabric” (https://www.thefreedictionary.com/weft).  Knowing that may help readers of Black Swan Impact to imagine what the game Wefty or Solo Wefty may be like.  The game is referred to five times in the sci-fi political thriller, and readers understand that the game can be played by one person or by several simultaneously.  However, readers do not learn the object or rules of the game played 100 years in the future as they encounter it in the novel.

     As the author, I have imagined how the game Wefty may be played and what the set up could look like.  I will wait to post my description until January 9, 2023, so my ideas will not affect your creative concepts.  Then, during the week of January 9th, subscribers will compare all the designs submitted by the those who accepted this challenge along with my game design.  Majority votes for best game design will determine who imagined Wefty (or Solo Wefty) best.  The winner will receive a blue golf shirt with the Black Swan Impact logo.  Note: Immediate family members of the author are not eligible to win a golf shirt.

     CHALLENGE:  In the chat portion below tell us how you imagine the game Wefty and/or Solo-Wefty would be played.  Suggestions regarding how you may elaborate appear below, but let your imagination go as far as you wish and have fun!

  • Define the object(s) of the game.   

  • Describe the playing field (board) and pieces.

  • What are the minimum and maximum number of players?

  • Define the rules.

  • What constitutes winning?

  • How does an individual play in Solo-Wefty?  In the Sneak Peek Chapter Two, the comedienne states, “I’m such an underachiever that I can’t even beat myself at Solo-Wefty.”

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*** Topic for The Week of December 12, 2022 ***
Two Amazing Locations that Readers Will See In Black Swan Impact

     The main character of Black Swan Impact, Syia (See Topic # 6 about her), came to America from Nepal after the family mountaineering business went bankrupt due to a devastating earthquake.  Years later, she and her husband, Paul, journeyed back to Syia’s birthplace for their honeymoon.  In Chapter 15, the couple recalled one of their experiences that occurred during that trip.  Their recollections are actually those emotions that I felt on the Altitude Air tour as we climbed toward Mount Everest.  (The photograph beginning the article is one that I took during that flight.)  Also known as Chomolungma, the towering mass named for the Nepalese Goddess Mother of the World, measures 29,031.69 feet (8,848.86 meters) in height.  It ranks as the highest mountain above sea level, and its grandeur overwhelms.

     “That ride to see the world’s highest peak remains one of my most precious memories.  The beauty and the danger made it spectacular.  Most pilots would take tourists to 18,000 or 20,000 feet.  Even at those altitudes there were risks like downdrafts, sudden cloud cover, and extreme weather.  But your cousin took us to 26,000 feet. …

     “… Remember how the sky turned bluer than we had ever seen before, and we left dense clouds below us as we climbed ever higher.  The air was clear and magnified the sharp features of the world’s tallest peak.  We could see every angle of jagged rocks and perhaps each crystalline snowflake as they glistened in the brilliant sunshine.  Soaring so high and seeing every detail so clearly, made us feel as if we touched the hand of God.”

     Another mountainous region also figures in Black Swan Impact.  It is Alaska.  Although I visited that enormous and wild state much longer ago than Nepal, the impressions of pristine beauty and magnificence still come to mind.  (Spoiler alert!  Do not read further if you wish to read events as they occur in the novel.)  In Chapter 33 Syia uses the rugged and sparsely populated region to try to escape captivity.

     “… Hearing more gun fire, a resurgence of fear prompted Syia to leap up the mountain like a mountain goat.  Her heart raced and her muscles burned as she fought to scamper up the slushy ice.  All too soon, she did not mimic a mountain goat.  She fell repeatedly, causing her to scrape her knees and her blue jeans to tear and soak through.  Nevertheless, she ignored the abrasions and rips. …

     “… Suddenly the distinctive roar of heliraptor gyrobladasters spanking the air came up from below.  Syia looked back as the silhouette of the flying menace arose.  Another rush of fear sparked her to run anew. …

     “… Syia was running and stumbling with every ounce of power she had, but the heliraptor was overhead in moments.  Slipping and dodging, she pressed on.  She would look up at the heliraptor and then up at her goal line continually.  All she could do was flee.  Run!  Go! Don’t stop! she screamed in her mind.  Then, unexpectedly, the snowpack beneath her gave way.  The ground swallowed her in an instant. ...”  

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Next week’s newsletter will offer subscribers the opportunity to imagine and design Wefty or Solo Wefty the game that characters play in Black Swan Impact.  This can be a fun challenge for any subscribers wishing to be creative.  (Articles will be published every Monday unless otherwise stated.)

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*** Topic for The Week of December 5, 2022 ***
Influential Authors And Some of Their Works

     Lee Child, Vince Flynn, and Tess Gerritsen appear in the list for Best All Time Authors of Thrillers (https://www.google.com/search?q=all+time+best+thriller+authors&oq=all+time+best+thriller+authors&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i22i30l2j0i390l4.9288j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8).  They are “go to” authors for me, so I have read and enjoyed quite a number of their books.  Moreover, I have loved reading so many books by diverse authors and genres that I could not begin to mention all of them with the following exceptions due to their lasting impression upon me.  I still quote Alice In Wonderland by Lewis Carroll, recalling fondly the times I heard it read to me as a child.  Then, leaping forward to my adult years, Doris Kearns Goodwin’s biographies of presidents have enlightened me with amazing facts and histories.  Two fantasy romance drama writers V. E. Schwab and Diana Gabaldon intrigue me with novels like The Invisible Life of Addie LaRue and the Outlander series.  However, none of those authors directly influenced me as I wrote Black Swan Impact.  Instead, I will focus on Kyle Mills, John M. Barry, and Michael Lewis and their associated books because they clearly influenced me as I wrote the sci-fi political thriller.

     Kyle Mills’ book Lethal Agent will be the first highlighted in this article.  Mills continued the Vince Flynn series after Flynn died, making the follow on author destined for the Best All Time Authors of Thrillers list, too.  If you like a high speed read with a gritty hero, you’ll love any of the books “starring” Mitch Rapp, but we will focus on one today.  Like my sci-fi political thriller, the plot of Lethal Agent combines political hurdles with a biological threat.  (The synopsis may be found on the Website: https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Lethal-Agent/Vince-Flynn/The-Mitch-Rapp-Series/9781982147549.)  As someone who formerly worked countless hours planning and preparing for anthrax attacks, I found Mills’ book compelling, exciting, and unnerving.  Because of his success with the subject, I felt empowered to include shocking truths as I wrote.  Hopefully, when you read about the deadly pandemic in Black Swan Impact, you will experience similar emotions.

     Two other pandemic related books, John M. Barry’s The Great Influenza and Michael Lewis’ The Premonition, gripped me and reassured me to write Black Swan Impact, as well.  These books provided firsthand accounts of the horrors that can be inflicted upon us by virulent pathogens and misguided, uninformed, or obstinate politicians.  (Barry’s Website: https://www.johnmbarry.com/ and Website for Lewis: https://www.michaellewiswrites.com/)  You will find similar attributes when reading my sci-fi political thriller because visceral images and astounding political issues abound in Black Swan Impact. 

     While every book that I have read likely influenced my writing to some extent, the three authors and their books mentioned above did so prominently.  Nonetheless, there was one more element that enhanced my ability to write a plausible sci-fi political thriller: my travels.  Next week’s topic will reveal some destinations that appear in Black Swan Impact.

Bonus: Video Recommendations  

Check out the educational series, TV magazine segment, and/or the blockbuster movie listed below.  I cannot recommend them enough if you are interested in the catastrophic impact disease can have on humans.

***

     I have traveled widely across the USA and to a number of locations around the world.  Learn about some of those locations mentioned in Black Swan Impact by reading next week’s Newsletter.  It will be the last in the four part series regarding influences on the author as she wrote the sci-fi political thriller.  (Articles will be published every Monday unless otherwise stated.)

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***Topic for the Week of November 28, 2022***

Two Exceptional Mentors

 

This week’s article will highlight two mentors who gave me the tools to excel professionally, which ultimately enhanced Black Swan Impact.  It is the second in a series of four posts that reveal important influences on me as the author of the sci-fi political thriller.  If you have any questions that you particularly wish me to answer, please ask them in the chat portion below or email helenhvettori@gmail.com.

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     Many people have influenced me throughout my life.  As you may have read last week, my parents and siblings began this series (Topic # 10).  Now, you’ll hear of two non-family individuals who inspired or supported me so greatly that I must credit them with changing me for the better.  They profoundly enhanced my careers and enabled me to have the honor and privilege to excel in professions of service, which then translated into my being able to write Black Swan Impact with authority and realism.  Joshua Vayer and Sharon Peyus* are those two people.

     Josh and I first worked together as paramedic partners over 40 years ago.  Running calls and saving lives in occasionally dangerous situations forged a bond between us.  We operated so synergistically that we could anticipate one another’s actions on those calls.  However, our professional lives marched on, and we went our separate ways until September 11, 2001, when I looked to serve the USA.  I knew Josh had risen to Director of the Protective Medicine Branch, so I applied for and filled a job there.  I believe that our former paramedic teamwork aided me to understand and deliver ordered and unrequested tasks with distinction. 

     One task was to plan and prepare for pandemics, and that’s how Sharon and I met.  She was one of the top planners for pandemics in the federal government.  We worked many months together when suddenly my office fell victim to budget cuts.  As the Director of the National Incident Response Unit, Sharon asked me to apply for a position in her shop.  There, she set me on a path that crescendoed to a fellowship and Employee of the Year award.

     Because of my professional experiences I was able to write a realistic sci-fi political thriller.  You will find insights into the Piper Administration that could only be revealed by a federal government insider, and you will see medical issues related to my paramedic work.  The valuable knowledge I obtained may be attributed to mentors, particularly Josh Vayer and Sharon Peyus, who channeled my talents over the course of my careers.  Yet another group influenced me as I wrote Black Swan Impact because the third group is composed of significant authors.  Look for a discussion about them and some of their works next week.

*Yes, you are correct.  Sharon was the winner of the golf shirt last week because she scored the greatest number of points in the first Black Swan Impact Newsletter contest. 

***

I will discuss influential authors and some of their works in next week’s newsletter, making that the third in a series of four posts that reveal important inspirations for me as the author of Black Swan Impact.  (Articles will be published every Monday unless otherwise stated.)

***

*** Topic for The Week of November 21, 2022 ***

     This week’s article will tell of the influence my parents and siblings had on me as I wrote Black Swan Impact.  Doing so should not diminish the significance of my core family, but I will highlight my parents and siblings today.  It is the first in a series of four posts that reveal important inspirations on me as the author of the sci-fi political thriller.  If you have any questions that you particularly wish me to answer, please ask them in the chat portion below or email helenhvettori@gmail.com.

***

     The holiday season begins this week.  We will share festivities with family and friends into the new year, but perhaps Thanksgiving Day allows us to devote the purest form of joy with our loved ones, particularly our relatives.  With that in mind, I hope you will appreciate the sentiments for this week’s topic.

     Words cannot adequately express how grateful I am for my family.  We grew up in a loving and caring environment in which our parents encouraged us to explore interests and expand our knowledge.  They provided us with the finest education via excellent schools and lively conversations at the dinner table.  It was not uncommon for us to pull out encyclopedias or other books when we discussed topics. Consequently, we each became successful professionals with wide interests and kindnesses, all of which influenced me as I wrote Black Swan Impact.

     My parents passed away well before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, yet their presence remain with me to this day.  I am certain their wisdom and love helped me to develop characters within the novel.  My brother and sister also encouraged and advised me as I fleshed out the storyline and characters.  Their thoughtful comments and visions enabled me to enhance the sci-fi political thriller.

    

     So, who were and are these extraordinary people? 

    

     My father grew up in Washington, DC.  He served in World War II and Korea.  A nationally and internationally recognized insurance and estate planning broker, he had hundreds of clients who would say he was their friend just as everyone he otherwise knew would say.  Perhaps Dad’s finest quality was how outgoing he was.  Once introduced, he was a friend for life.

     After moving to DC from Wisconsin my mother began her career at Arena Stage.  She played Stella in Streetcar Named Desire and seemed on her way to stardom until she met Dad.  She left the theater but later used her acting skills to go out on the national and international circuits, speaking on flower arranging.  Additionally, she wrote two books on the subject and one cookbook, engaging me to illustrate two of the books.  (The books are no longer in print or I would provide a link to them.)  Perhaps that collaboration planted the seed in me to write.

     Ironically, my brother moved to Wisconsin for a job that ended up being a 30+ year career.  He is the Music Director for the Bel Canto Chorus (https://www.belcanto.org/richard-hynson.html) and for the Kettle Moraine Symphony Orchestra (https://kmsymphony.org/).  In addition to his work as conductor and educator, he is a composer.  Rick has written a substantial body of choral, vocal, and instrumental works.  The U.S. Air Force Singing Sergeants have frequently performed his piece In the Midst of Life, composed in response to the events of Sept. 11.

     My sister prefers not to be spotlighted, but she, too, deserves kudos for a successful career. 

     As proud as I am of my siblings accomplishments, I value them most because of their love and devotion.  A recent example of that was how they encouraged and guided me as I wrote the sci-fi political thriller.  They continue to do so as do my parents in absentia.  However, they were not the only ones who helped me to write Black Swan Impact.  I will introduce some other important individuals next week.

     Have a pleasant Thanksgiving.  Enjoy family, friends, and food.

***

Next week’s newsletter will introduce more people who influenced me as I wrote Black Swan Impact.  It will be the second in a series of four posts that reveal important inspirations on me as the author. (Articles will be published every Monday unless otherwise stated.)

***

Kindly tell people about Black Swan Impact.  Encourage them to visit the Website https://helenhvettori.wixsite.com/black-swan-impact where they can access the Chapter Two sneak peek.

***

*** Topic for The Week of November 14, 2022***

Contest Reminder and Answer To A Subscriber’s Question

 

Contest Reminder:

See last week’s post, Topic #8, explaining rules and procedures for the contest.  The person who earns the most points will win a blue golf shirt with the Black Swan Impact logo imprinted on it.  The contest ends on November 19, 2022, at 5 PM Eastern Time.

***

This week’s article will answer a question by a subscriber.  If you have any questions that you particularly wish me to answer, please ask them in the chat portion below or email helenhvettori@gmail.com.

***

     A subscriber asked, “When we faced the pandemic, it seems as though the United States did not utilize some available scientific protocols.  Is this problem in the book as well?”  To provide a sufficient answer, this question requires two parts.  First, it must expose some unscientific foibles committed by the Trump and Biden Administrations related to the COVID-19 pandemic.  Second, it will reveal some unempirical blunders enacted by the fictitious Piper Administration in Black Swan Impact.  By doing so, readers will appreciate that the sci-fi political thriller mirrors reality when problems arise by disregarding science.

     COVID-19 has already killed more than one million Americans and in 2023, may remain the third leading cause of death after heart disease and cancer.  Arguably the two recent US administrations disregarding or downplaying proven science has cost and may continue to cost more lives than necessary.  One could point out quite a number of mistakes made by ignoring scientific facts, but for brevity this article will focus on only two examples of politically driven miscues. 

     During the Trump Administration, American life expectancy fell by 1.13 years due to over 450,000 deaths (at the time), which was much higher than other comparable nations (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/trumps-policy-failures-have-exacted-a-heavy-toll-on-public-health1/).  One reason for that staggering statistic may be attributed to disregarding proven scientific data such as wearing masks.  N-95 respirators, in particular, filter out viruses like SARS CoV 2, yet the “don’t tread on me” political attitude delayed or negated mask usage by many.   How many people needlessly died because they inhaled the pathogen rather than donning personal protective equipment?

     The Biden Administration also mishandled the response to COVID-19 for political gain.  The most recent error came via an announcement on September 18, 2022.  Biden declared, “The pandemic is over.”  Why did he announce that when a pandemic may be defined as a world-wide outbreak of disease that affects great numbers of the population concurrently?  Presently, China maintains strict lock downs, Europe is seeing another wave, and morbidity from a new variant is rising in the US and Latin America.  Misinforming people subjects all of us to unnecessary vulnerabilities. 

     When decisions are made for the wrong reasons, the consequences can be catastrophic, and that point inspired the plot for Black Swan Impact.  In the sci-fi political thriller’s world, President Daniel Piper at first rejects the threat of a killer disease altogether because he does not want his agenda derailed.  He pushes back hard until Dr. Syia Case convinces him of the danger.  However, later he once again ignores science.  For example, Piper insists on allowing those Americans who wish to live without public health measures to do so.  Syia, her husband, and a few other government officials attempt to counter the unwise power Piper wields.  Turmoil, death, and Machiavellian behaviors abound. 

     People in Black Swan Impact suffer as a result of the administration snubbing available scientific protocols just as we have witnessed in the United States during COVID-19.  Therefore, subscriber, the answer to your question is yes.  (Spoiler alert!  Do not read the final line if you don’t wish to learn the political consequences in the novel.)  However, unlike our reality, fictitious characters ultimately defeat Daniel Piper and his ill-advised decrees via a coup and a civil war.

***

 

Recommended Related Article:

You may wish to read an April 7, 2020, speech presented by Dr. Patrice Harris, president of the American Medical Association, where she said, “… We have witnessed a concerning shift over the last several decades where policy decisions seem to be driven by ideology and politics instead of facts and evidence …” (https://www.ama-assn.org/press-center/speeches/covid-19-importance-science-era-distrust-and-disinformation).

***

Next week’s newsletter will announce the contest winner and describe the influence of my parents and siblings on me and my writing.  (Articles will be published every Monday unless otherwise stated.)

***

*** Topic for The Week of November 7, 2022***

Black Swan Impact Contest

 

You could win the golf shirt from this site: https://helenhvettori.substack.com/p/black-swan-impact-topic-8

     Winning is simple.  All you need to do is introduce people to the Newsletter for Black Swan Impact.  (Click hyperlink above.)  Every time you share an article from the site, you will receive one point.  Then, if the person(s) you referred to the Newsletter sign(s) in and leave(s) a message stating that you referred them, you and that new person will receive five more points per confirmed referral.  The person ending up with the highest score will win a blue golf shirt with the Black Swan Impact logo imprinted on it.  So, get the word out about the sci-fi political thriller, Black Swan Impact.  Introduce the newsletter to family, friends, book club members, and coworkers now and each day of the contest.  You can be the winner!

THE CONTEST BEGINS IMMEDIATELY

THE CONTEST IS OPEN TO ANYONE* WHO HAS SIGNED UP TO RECEIVE THE FREE NEWSLETTER FOR BLACK SWAN IMPACT

THE CONTEST ENDS AT 5 PM EASTERN TIME ON SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 19, 2022

THE WINNER WILL BE ANNOUNCED WIDELY VIA THE BLACK SWAN IMPACT NEWSLETTER THAT WILL BE PUBLISHED ON MONDAY, NOVEMBER 21, 2022

RULES & PROCEDURES

  1. A contestant is anyone who has signed up to receive the free Newsletter for Black Swan Impact *but is not an immediate family member of Helen Hynson Vettori.  Whether you’re an original subscriber or a new one, you can take part in the contest.  (Note: No one’s data will be sold or used for any purpose other then to compile analytics related to the Newsletter for Black Swan Impact.)

  2. During the contest period, contestants may refer as many people as they like to the Newsletter for Black Swan Impact by sharing any article(s) from the site. 

  3. Earning Single Points – The Website automatically registers analytics.  Sharing an article from the Newsletter for Black Swan Impact with one individual constitutes one referral and equals one point.  Sharing an article from the Newsletter for Black Swan Impact with two individuals constitutes two referrals and equals two points.  Sharing an article from the Newsletter for Black Swan Impact with three individuals constitutes three referrals and equals three points. Etc.  There is no limit to how many unique shares you may send, but they must be unique shares to add points to your score, and they must occur during the contest period.

  4. Earning Five Points – Ask your referral(s) to sign into the Newsletter for Black Swan Impact and leave a message saying you referred them.  They must use your email address identifier for the Newsletter.  If your referred party does that, you and that new subscriber will earn five points.  If your referral(s) do(es) not leave a message specifically saying that you (email address) referred them, you and the new subscriber will not earn the five points.  Points will be awarded during the contest period. 

  5. You may share any article(s) from the Newsletter for Black Swan Impact as often as you like during the timeframe of the contest.  The contest begins on Monday, November 7, 2022, at the time the contest announcement is published in the Newsletter for Black Swan Impact and ends at 5 PM Eastern Time on Saturday, November 19, 2022.

  6. Points registered after 5 PM Eastern Time on Saturday, November 19, 2022, will not be added to your total score.

  7. The person who earns the most points wins the golf shirt.

  8. The overall announcement of the winner will occur on Monday, November 21, 2022, at the time the newest article is published.  However, Helen Hynson Vettori will reach out personally to the winner and send the golf shirt to the address specified.

 

Purpose of The Contest

     Publishers interested in offering Helen Hynson Vettori a contract for her novel require data that indicate Black Swan Impact will bring a good return on their investment.  If the analytics from social media show positive interest, a publisher will sign Vettori.  Therefore, if you are captivated by the sneak peek Chapter Two excerpt and the accompanying Newsletter articles for Black Swan Impact, share any article(s) from this site with as many people as you can.  Not only will your actions increase the statistics toward publication of the sci-fi political thriller, but they may make you the winner of a Black Swan Impact golf shirt.

*** Topic for The Week of October 31, 2022 ***

     The three characters from Black Swan Impact introduced in today’s post are Paul Case, Daniel Piper, and Marla Estes.  Two of them, Paul Case and Daniel Piper, have appeared in previous articles.  They both stood out in the sneak peek Chapter Two and Paul appeared in last week’s description of Syia.  Marla Estes is new today.  All three of them are important individuals who intertwine with one another and the main character of the sci-fi political thriller.

     Paul Case grew up in a privileged family, enabling him to develop his extraordinary mind via the finest education.  Never arrogant due to his intelligence or massive wealth, he remains personable.  Quiet and unassuming, the handsome and good natured genius enjoys letting others shine.  Those qualities serve him and his business partner, Daniel Piper, when they found Piper & Case Space Industries.  Paul’s two PhDs from MIT, mechanical and electrical, and his friendship enable him to evaluate Daniel’s innovative ideas and either reject them or explore them for viability and merit.  As a result, the company soars and benefits Earth. 

     In the sneak peek Chapter Two excerpt, readers learned that Daniel Piper was the “trifecta” because the quadrillionaire was President of the United States and extremely good looking.  The rich, powerful, and attractive Piper enjoyed and flaunted his wealth and notoriety likely because his early years had been impoverished and troubled.  He turned his destructive behavior around first in high school when he met Syia and next at university when he met Paul.  Then at Piper & Case Space Industries Daniel assumed the role of the front man with charisma.  He attracted attention and capital to start and maintain their uber successful company with his charm and ideas. 

     Despite his magnetic attributes, Piper can be very abrasive.  Case understands this, making him the ideal White House Chief of Staff after previous Chiefs of Staff could not handle the capricious president.  Case reigns in his difficult boss.  Further, he recognizes that White House personnel admire and respond to National Security Advisor Marla Estes.  Case leverages her leadership qualities to settle the previously chaotic workplace. 

     Grateful for Case and his support, Estes focuses the staff to serve the United States.  She has the personality and professional qualifications to do so.  Marla has served 30 years in the Central Intelligence Agency and taught at universities.  Having a doctorate in history and tremendous memory, she can adeptly relay myriads of facts ranging from monumental to obscure, tying those facts into present day and future issues appropriately.  Additionally, her direct, no nonsense communication style empowers everyone to follow streamlined and clear paths.   

     The administration begins to operate well until a novel virus strikes.  As the Black Swan grows, they face increasingly troubling situations.  (See topic #4 for the meaning of Black Swan.)  The tremendous stress affects their relationships, compounding unforeseen consequences.  Who aligns with whom?  Who betrays whom?  The plot of Black Swan Impact comprise the answers to those questions.    

     Finally, remembering that I firmly believe readers envision what the characters look like for themselves, I hesitate to suggest who could be cast to play Paul Case, Daniel Piper, and Marla Estes.  On the other hand, the question of who I would choose is a common one.  Therefore, below are the three actors whom I believe could assume the roles.

Paul Case …….. Bradley Cooper

Daniel Piper …. Dylan McDermott

Marla Estes ….. Jane Lynch

*** Topic for The Week of October 24, 2022 ***

     “How did Syia (pronounced sī-yuh) get her name?” is a common question readers ask me as the author of Black Swan Impact.  I chose it because I met a girl with the beautiful and, to me, exotic name when I visited Nepal.  As I began to write the sci-fi political thriller, I determined that the main character had to be exceptional in many ways.  Developing an interesting person from a land where the Himalayas tower and mold the people seemed right.  The name of that girl I met in Nepal a few years before appeared in my mind, inspiring the character.

     “What does Syia look like?” is another question people ask me.  First, I firmly believe every reader paints a picture of the characters for themselves.  My vision of Syia may differ from everyone’s, but I can offer you a glimpse into my mind by identifying an actress who I think could represent Syia.  If I were casting the part for Syia, I would choose Thandiwe Newton.  Newton’s features largely resemble how I envision Syia, and her age is appropriate for the character.

     Dr. Syia Case is strong and admirable.  She has graduated at the top of every class from high school through medical school, acting as co-valedictorian at her high school graduation and graduating at the top of her class from Johns Hopkins in the shortest time ever.  When readers first meet her, Dr. Case is the Director of Epidemiology at the National Institutes of Health but is also a world-renowned epidemiologist.  Moreover, she is a skilled mountaineer.  Despite those extraordinary accomplishments, readers can identify with her because she experiences universal emotions like love, fortitude, indignation, doubt, tenacity, fear, grief, and triumph throughout Black Swan Impact.

     If you have read the sneak peek Chapter Two, you have learned that Syia and her husband, who is the current White House Chief of Staff, are in the midst of marital difficulties.  They are separated.  The reasons for their separation largely revolve around the amount of time Paul spends at work, and Syia’s inability to come to terms with the hard truth that they could not have a child.  You also learn that they reconcile. 

     Syia seems back on track to happiness until a virus of unbelievable virulence with an alarming rate of infection strikes.  She assumes the central position of subject matter expert who advises the President and all those living in the USA on how to protect themselves.  At first, her guidance enables the US to prepare energetically.  However, her heroic efforts are upended by the Black Swan, causing her to suffer great personal costs until she finally triumphs.  (See topic #4 for the meaning of Black Swan.)

     Naturally, Syia did not strive to save lives and the country alone.  She is part of a team dedicated to the cause, and all of them encounter hurdles, as well.  Next week’s article will introduce three other prominent characters who also acted to mitigate the effects of the horrific pandemic.

***

*** Topic for The Week of October 17, 2022 ***

     Each chapter of the sci-fi political thriller, Black Swan Impact, begins with a “Window”.  I chose the name “Window” because the architectural feature usually is a transparent opening that provides views to that which otherwise would be obstructed or unobservable.  Some of the “Windows” relate directly to their given chapters while others present backstories, but they all enrich the novel.  In short, Black Swan Impact “Windows” enhance reading experiences. 

     In the sneak peek Black Swan Impact Chapter Two “Window”, readers witness the last moments of a doctor who first encounters the outbreak of a mysterious and virulent illness.  Then, in the chapter, Dr. Syia Case notices the ill-fated doctor’s report.  It prompts her to sound the alarm.  In this example, the “Window” at the beginning of Chapter Two is directly related to it. 

     Conversely, I have chosen two Windows for this article that are backstories.  The first Window comes from Chapter Twelve.  The second is taken from Chapter Thirty-five.  Additionally, you will find a brief commentary for each one.  If you have not yet read the sneak peek excerpt from Black Swan Impact Chapter Two with its accompanying “Window”, you may do so by scrolling down to the first Newsletter post or visit the Website https://helenhvettori.wixsite.com/black-swan-impact.  Click on the Excerpt section.

***

Window from Chapter 12:

Cases of Pyongyang Virus skyrocket on Earth

Elinor Llashim, Lunar Times – Lunar Times – March 27, 2113

 

Earth: The Free State of Korea - Overtaxed healthcare workers struggle to keep pace with the exponential number of cases of Pyongyang Virus pouring into hospitals and other urgent care facilities.  “We’re in hell,” Dr. Jin Jing reported from Hee-Young Hospital in Incheon, Free State of Korea.   “Patients are coming in faster than we can admit them.  There is no more room, yet they keep coming.  Worse than that, we have not found efficacious treatments and our patients expire rapidly.  We are losing control.” 

 

This medical crisis is not limited to the Korean peninsula.  Many countries on Earth are beginning to experience a similar situation.  Minutes ago, Dr. Wex Fuda of the World Health Organization declared the Pyongyang Virus a pandemic of epic impact.  She says, “We are approaching grave danger at this point.”

Moon: Lunar officials confirm there have been no cases of Pyongyang Virus on the Moon and will close ports to all but essential transports with strict quarantine measures applied effective immediately.  “Residents should be assured we are taking every precaution to ensure the virus does not find its way to the Moon,” Dalila Horn, Chief Administrator explained.  

AUTHOR’S COMMENTARY

     This “Window” provides two enhancing elements, one overtly and the other subliminally.  First, it obviously imparts the catastrophic situation challenging those living in the universe of the sci-fi political thriller.  Readers confirm that the impact of the awful pathogen affects more than the central characters who, in this chapter, are grappling with strategies to protect the American people and the USA.  Moreover, the report punctuates that the threat concerns those beyond Earth.  

     The second enhancing element indirectly touches readers.  Since the dawn of humanity, we have had to survive many hazards, including harmful microorganisms.  For that reason, readers may experience an innate dread of the virus emerging in Black Swan Impact.  Readers empathize with those frightened in the novel while also subtly becoming part of the community.  Audiences of Black Swan Impact can read the Lunar Times as if they were living on the Moon nearly one hundred years in the future.

***    

Window from Chapter 35:

 

            She awoke dazed in her Medical Treatment Pod.  Looking through the aperture on its front she could see the other patients in their individual cocoon-like chambers because the Pods formed a circle in this PYV Sanatorium chamber.  The other patients floated gently inside their enclosures and none of them had their eyes open.

            Gaining clarity, she looked at herself, seeing the tubes and probes attached to her naked body.  They did not hurt, nor did they scare her.  She knew they were life sustaining elements, so she left them alone.

            Now fully conscious, she called out, “Hello?”

            “Patient,” responded the Automated Critical Care Android.  “Please remain calm.  I will notify a human medical provider that you are conscious.  Please describe how you are feeling.”

            “I’m a little foggy.  What day is it?”

            “The day is Tuesday.  The date is June 20, 2113.  Describe how you feel please.”

            “June twentieth?”

            “Yes.  How are you feeling?”

            “I’m alive!” she put her hands on her cheeks, feeling her face and then stroking her hair.  I’m feeling elated.  I’m alive!”  She tried to open the door.

            “Please remain still and calm.  A human team is on the way.  Your treatment seems to be very efficacious, patient 35,748,966, but please try to remain calm.”

 

AUTHOR’S COMMENTARY

     Although Chapter 35 centers on Dr. Syia Case awaking to a new situation, this “Window” divulges that a cure for the devastating pandemic is at hand.  It also gives perspective regarding the vast numbers of people infected.  Readers will never know where this patient falls in the total of those being treated, but it is clear that she is one of many millions.  Further, at this late point in Black Swan Impact, readers understand that a great many people have died.  Nonetheless, this “Window” offers hope when the Automated Critical Care Android says, “Your treatment seems to be very efficacious …”.  Therefore, readers receive a foreshadow that the pandemic will be controlled because of the backstory in this “Window”.  If it were not for this clue, the revelation would not become clear until Chapter 37 and beyond when readers learn that Earthlings discover a way to combat the virus.

***

Next week’s newsletter will discuss the main character named Syia (pronounced sī-yuh).

***

*** Topic for The Week of October 10, 2022 ***

     This week’s article focuses on the term Black Swan Incident or Black Swan Event, how it became a benchmark in the emergency management field, and how it applies to pandemics.  If you have any questions that you particularly wish me to answer, please ask them in the chat portion below.

                                                   *** Topic for The Week of October 10, 2022 *** 

     The first paragraph in the prologue of Black Swan Impact reveals the definition and derivation of Black Swan Incident or Event.  “A Black Swan Event is a term used to describe a catastrophic incident that no one could have foreseen or imagined because of its unprecedented impact.  Derived from the overwhelming and utter surprise of 17th century Western peoples when a Dutch explorer, Willem de Vlamingh, discovered black swans in Australia; the term exemplifies how something could be profoundly stunning.  Until that discovery, swans were known by Europeans only to be white.  The discovery that black swans existed rocked their scientific world and henceforth altered the course of zoonotic studies.”  The term became popular centuries later when Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a finance professor, introduced his theory regarding startling and historically devastating economic occurrences.  Neither de Vlamingh nor Taleb expected the term to be ubiquitous, but it spilled from scientists to economists to others across varied fields.

     Emergency managers embrace the idiom Black Swan Incident or Event because they understand natural or man-made disasters can be unfathomable and overwhelming.  Emergency managers have the monumental mission of reducing or averting the impact of recognized hazards through mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery.  As if that weren’t challenging enough, in addition to expected risks, they know that Black Swans can occur.  When an unimaginable threat does arise, it must be met with swift, intelligent, and unified actions – none of which can happen without ongoing robust planning and preparing.

     You may recall in Topic #1, synopsis for Black Swan Impact and why I wrote it, I referred to President George W. Bush, in 2005, tasking the Federal Government to plan and prepare for a pandemic.  The motive behind that order was that his advisors warned one was overdue.  Being cyclical, pandemics will forever be a recuring threat where new, harmful pathogens propagate at the expense of their hosts.  Therefore, planning and preparing for a pandemic, especially a Black Swan outbreak like the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic where 50 – 100 million died worldwide, became a priority.      

     Regrettably, planning and preparing for pandemics waned over the years and across administrations.  Funding fell and greater attention moved to other political agendas.  Nevertheless, the menace never abated.  Consequently, in my opinion, when SARS CoV-2 emerged, the United States came up short in preparedness and responded sub optimally to the COVID-19 pandemic. 

     As Robert G. Darling, MD, FACEP, one of the people who offered praise for Black Swan Impact said, "Back in 1928, when penicillin was first discovered, it was predicted infectious diseases would become a thing of the past.  How wrong we were.  The ever-adaptable microbes continue to confound us.  Helen Vettori has penned a gripping novel of what a future human pandemic might look like and what our leaders may face as they attempt to manage the crisis inflicted by a terrifying pathogen."

     Yes, Black Swan pandemics that challenge our existence will emerge in the future, but we can unite in continuing actions and innovations to lessen their effects and achieve better results than those of the Piper Administration in Black Swan Impact.  The message that Black Swan outbreaks are possible should not petrify us into inaction, nor should we diminish the necessary planning and preparing in favor of other agendas.  Knowing such occurrences can and will happen should galvanize us to bolster strategies, encourage medical advances, and stockpile supplies unceasingly.  Those efforts will benefit generations to come, and dystopian consequences needn’t result. 

     Next week’s newsletter will focus on the “Windows” that begin each chapter of Black Swan Impact.

***Topic for Week of October 3, 2022 ***

     Helen Vettori NEMAA, NSFP-EM appeared in my signature block when I was a member of the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) workforce.  The professional acronyms signified my subject matter expertise in Emergency Management.  Once I retired, I concentrated on pursuits like writing.  However, I am getting ahead of myself because my career in DHS did not solely influence me as I wrote Black Swan Impact.  Indeed, there were other elements that enabled me to create a plausible world facing an unimaginable threat from a novel, virulent pathogen.  My background afforded me unique, first-hand knowledge to write the sci-fi political thriller.   

     Arguably the most extraordinary attribute that influenced my writing is that I am a seventh generation Washingtonian.  I literally was born and raised in our Nation’s Capital, witnessing the Federal Government in action from the earliest age.  Moreover, I worked in The G after taking a number of different skilled avenues, all of which enabled me to thrive there.

     First, I began serving the National Capital Region by joining the Bethesda-Chevy Chase Rescue Squad.  The image of the recruiting campaign poster with me, my son, two colleagues, and their youngsters is apropos to my lifelong desire to provide emergency assistance.  (The poster may be viewed in this week's Black Swan Impact Newsletter.  Please go to the Newsletter via the link on the Home Page.)  The earliest memories related to that wish to be a firefighter and/or EMT/paramedic harken back to when I was four years old.  My parents gave me a peddle fire engine that I routinely rode on the sidewalk to crashes that occurred at a dangerous intersection half a block from the first house in which we lived.  I watched Rescue Squad personnel respond to the scene and render first aid.  In short, their heroic actions kindled the spark within me.   

     Years later, my firefighter husband and I agreed having two parents in the high-risk occupation was no longer best for our family.  Consequently, I stopped riding ambulances and became a faculty member at an elementary school, not only teaching but acting as the school’s first responder.  However, I missed being able to render help in the field.

     Then 9/11 struck.  While returning to the fire and rescue service seemed obvious, a new opportunity arose.  I took the position Senior Medical Intelligence Analyst at the Protective Medicine Branch (PMB) within DHS largely due to my years of experience in the BCC Rescue Squad and enhanced by a master’s degree in Strategic Intelligence.  Additionally, I was a staff member of Counter Narcotics and Terrorism Operational Medical Support (CONTOMS).  Those areas of concentration drew me into a new world related to medical response.   

     When the PMB was defunded, I transferred to an emergency management position at the National Incident Response Unit.  Duties included teaching and specializing in planning and preparing for biological incidents such as pandemics.  I also became a Fellow in the National Security Fellows Program – Emergency Management (NSFP-EM) and took charge of Point of Dispensing preparedness for two National Special Security Events.  Because of those efforts, I was awarded “Employee of the Year” in 2013.  Finally, I earned multiple certifications, including the gold standard National Emergency Management Advanced Academy (NEMAA) from FEMA’s Emergency Management Institute.

     In retirement I devoted my full attention to endeavors like travel.  However, the 2020 pandemic lockdown barred that and like everyone I fell captive to the situation.  My frustrations regarding the muddled response led me to write, which became cathartic.  I moved away from anguish and disbelief, channeling those emotions into the sci-fi political thriller.  Truly, all my vocations and avocations influenced me as I wrote Black Swan Impact, and they allowed me to craft a plot laced with credibility and striking scenes garnered from some of my amazing life journeys.        

***

     Next week’s newsletter article will reveal the derivation of the term Black Swan and how it became a benchmark in the emergency field.

*** Topic for The Week of September 26, 2022 ***

     The snide remark that led me to write Black Swan Impact was related to a song.  To put that into context, my sister and I were discussing the poor implementation of mandates and guidance related to CoVID-19.  Where public health measures should have mitigated the rising morbidity and mortality, I saw failures.  In frustration, I spat out the lyrics for the chorus of a Grammy Award winning song by the Eagles.

     In my opinion, messaging for CoVID-19 was suboptimal and, therefore, confusing to the public.  Consider these few examples of conflicting messaging.  Don’t wear masks.  Wear masks.  Don’t wear N-95 respirators.  Wear N-95s.  Lockdown.  Open up.  Possibly we opened up too early.  There are more, but you can see my point.  It’s no wonder that many people became skeptical and resistant to directions and expectations.  Consequently, some chose to follow public health measures and some did not.

     Good messaging and bold actions may be the greatest tools in the toolbox for officials to manage a crisis well.  Informing the general public with timely, consistent, and accurate messages presented in simple language enables everyone to understand and more readily accept the situation and necessary courses of action.  When everyone responds in a unified effort, the recovery from the crisis moves more efficiently and effectively.  When responses are uneven, the disaster can expand significantly.

     Naturally, all crises are unique and response measures may need to change.  However, when taking a different direction, the message must clearly state why the alteration is required and what would be expected by implementing the action.  Knowledge is power, and it can better focus the response to a common goal.  When muddled or withheld, the situation degrades.

     My snide remark made during that telephone conversation referred to separating those who chose to follow public health measures and those who did not.  The seed was sown.  The story of confronting a new and virulent virus plaguing Earth started to flow.  In Chapter 14 of Black Swan Impact I wrote, “It was life or death, and everyone had the choice of how to face it.  Being tagged and adhering to strict lockdowns and quarantines comforted many.  They counted on avoiding the disease by holing up in the safety and security of their homes.  But going out in style was a choice that others flocked to.  They could be free.  They could really live before they died.  Carpe Diem.  To them, hiding in shuttered homes was already death.”

     In Black Swan Impact messaging and strategies help the Piper Administration and the public to implement safeguarding measures.  However, the virulent threat becomes overwhelming, causing increasingly questionable responses with horrifying downstream consequences.  US citizens hurtle toward a dystopia.

     One can argue, Black Swan Impact is fiction and improbable.  Yet there are truths woven throughout the novel, including the fact that some people will or won’t follow orders and strategies, particularly when they are politically motivated.  The truths embedded in my novel stem from my vocational subject matter expertise and life experiences, so my careers and interests will be the topic for next week's article.

*** Topic for The Week of September 19, 2022 ***

     Perhaps the number one question that authors get asked is, “What is your book about?”  To answer that, I will copy and paste the synopsis: In 2113, the world faces an extraordinary pandemic crisis.  Dr. Syia Case, National Institutes of Health Director of Epidemiology, and her husband, White House Chief of Staff Paul Case, struggle against increasingly questionable actions by President Daniel Piper.  The couple and a few other key figures in the administration stand up to the Black Swan, a term used to describe a catastrophic incident that no one can foresee or imagine because of its unprecedented impact.  Despite heavy personal costs and seemingly insurmountable odds, they heroically fight to save the United States from a depraved president and humankind from a novel, virulent virus.

     The next frequently asked question is, “Why did you write your book?”  I wrote Black Swan Impact as a result of my utter consternation regarding the U.S. Federal Government’s response to SARS COVID-19.  When COVID-19 emerged, I had already retired from the Department of Homeland Security workforce.  During my years of service, I helped plan and prepare for biological threats, to include pandemics.  As the outbreak gripped the world, I became increasingly appalled by official actions or lack thereof and confusing messaging.  “How can this be?” I questioned time and again.  “Why aren’t they using the pandemic plan with the strategies and messaging that have been in place for years?” 

     In 2005, President George W. Bush tasked the Federal Government to plan and prepare for a pandemic because his advisors warned that it was overdue to strike.  To drive home the necessity for this course of action, one advisor gave President Bush a book by John M. Barry. Barry’s book, The Great influenza, was a shocking historical account of the 1918-1919 flu and prompted 43 to say in a speech, "A pandemic is a lot like a forest fire.  If caught early it might be extinguished with limited damage.  If allowed to smolder, undetected, it can grow to an inferno that can spread quickly beyond our ability to control it."  Therefore, we in the Federal Government planned and prepared for a pandemic diligently over many years.

     That being the case, I never imagined all the planning and preparing set into place would largely be ignored or forgotten.  The Federal Government’s miscues and confusion in response to COVID-19 caused me a great deal of exasperation, and I voiced my thoughts to my family and close friends.  One day in 2020, as I spewed a snide remark regarding the most recent COVID-19 blunder, my sister suggested that my statement sounded like the foundation for a book.  I cottoned to the idea.  Putting words on paper became cathartic as I confronted my disappointments by writing Black Swan Impact.

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